Britain & EU member-states
Towards a UK-EU Security Pact
06 August 2024
The UK wants to forge a ‘security pact’ with the EU. But too much ambition now risks failure. A gradual approach will be more successful.
In the UK's plans for AI, Brussels still looms large
25 July 2024
The new British government plans to regulate powerful AI models. But it should also influence how European authorities implement their law on AI and help shape global norms on AI regulation.
The murky world of French politics
19 July 2024
Two weeks after the second round of France’s parliamentary elections, it is still far from clear who or what can form a new French government.
Where might UK-EU relations be under a Labour government?
18 July 2024
The Labour government offers a chance for a new start for UK-EU relations. But the UK will have to both address the causes of Brexit and present a compelling offer.
An open letter to Keir Starmer: Ten suggestions on how to foster better relations with Europe
08 July 2024
In an open letter to Keir Starmer, Charles Grant offers ten suggestions on how the Labour government can improve the UK-EU relationship.
Should the UK pursue dynamic alignment with the EU?
04 July 2024
The EU’s neighbours follow various models of dynamic alignment with its rules. Which model, if any, could suit the UK?
EU-UK relations: Towards a post-election agenda
01 July 2024
Britain’s next government needs a coherent strategy towards the EU, ranging from trade and regulation to energy, foreign policy and defence.
Delivering the goods: An EU trade agenda for the next UK government
28 May 2024
The Labour Party’s red lines will restrict its ambitions for changing the EU-UK relationship, but if it forms a government it should push Brussels for concessions, particularly on trade in goods.
Living next door to an elephant: Lessons for the UK from EFTA
29 April 2024
After Brexit, the UK finds itself next door to a regional trade hegemon. Britain can draw useful lessons from the experience of the EFTA countries.
Weighed down by gravity: UK trade policy after Brexit
11 March 2024
The post-Brexit vision of 'Global Britain' is slowly replaced by the reality that free trade agreements deliver marginal benefits, particularly for the UK’s service-oriented economy.
A new equilibrium in Northern Ireland: Can it last?
01 March 2024
The agreement between the British government and the Democratic Unionist Party addresses immediate challenges but falls short of resolving Northern Ireland’s Brexit conundrum.
Brexit, four years on: Answers to two trade paradoxes
25 January 2024
Since the UK left the EU in 2020, its goods exports to the EU have not performed any worse than to the rest of the world, and its services exports have grown strongly. How come?
A European strategy for Labour
27 September 2023
Keir Starmer will find it hard to improve the Tory Brexit deal – which most EU leaders like. But if he is willing to offer something in return, they may give him a better deal.
What approach should Labour take to the 2026 TCA review?
06 September 2023
A Labour government will want to reshape relations with the EU. The 2026 review of the trade deal offers only limited scope for change – but that should not constrain Labour’s ambitions.
Building UK-EU bridges: Convergent China policies?
10 July 2023
The EU and the UK have almost identical objectives vis-à-vis China, and are pursuing very similar policies. After Brexit, can they still work together closely?
Are the costs of Brexit big or small?
09 May 2023
Critics say my estimate – that the British economy is around 5 per cent smaller due to Brexit – is implausibly large. This insight tests their scepticism against other ways to estimate the cost of Brexit.
Will the Retained EU Law Bill undermine Sunak's Windsor deal?
30 March 2023
In its current form the Retained EU Law Bill is incompatible with the Windsor Framework. Rishi Sunak should make big changes to the REUL bill or scrap it altogether.
Does the Windsor deal herald warmer ties between Britain and the EU?
01 March 2023
The Windsor deal on the Northern Ireland protocol may herald warmer UK-EU ties. It has strengthened von der Leyen and Sunak. But the Retained EU Law bill promises trouble.
Early impacts of the post-Brexit immigration system on the UK labour market
17 January 2023
The end of the free movement has led to a shortfall of around 330,000 workers in Britain. Most are in less-skilled sectors of the economy.
The cost of Brexit to June 2022
21 December 2022
My latest update estimates Brexit reduced Britain's GDP by 5.5 per cent by the second quarter of 2022. My model avoids the cherry-picking of data, and performs better than its critics’ methods.