Research
Trump is back, worse than last time. Is Europe ready?
11 February 2025
Donald Trump’s America is an unreliable ally. Individual European states will be tempted to hope Trump attacks someone else. They must work together instead, to reduce their dependency on America.
It's time to upgrade the EU-India relationship
07 February 2025
The EU’s new leadership team all agree that relations with India should be a priority, and both sides stand to gain by deepening co-operation.
Towards an EU 'defence union'?
30 January 2025
The EU can play a substantial role in strengthening Europe's defences, in synergy with NATO and national efforts, if it adopts a pragmatic approach, sharply focused on military needs.
Why tech firms should not stoke transatlantic tensions
24 January 2025
Some large US tech firms want to enlist President Trump in their attempts to water down EU tech laws. Such a strategy will only make life harder for US firms in Europe – and globally.
Europe and the global economic order
22 January 2025
Geopolitical rivalries threaten the legal order on which European trade depends. To maintain its influence and secure its trade relations, the EU must maintain its openness and build alliances.
How German industry can survive the second China shock
16 January 2025
China's industrial subsidies and aggressive export-led growth are undercutting German manufacturing. To defend its automotive and engineering sectors, Germany must finally get tough on China with trade and industrial policies.
The difficulties of restoring democracy in Poland
17 December 2024
The restoration of democracy in Poland is a slow-moving process, but it offers valuable lessons to other member-states.
The UK can ride Trump out on trade
12 December 2024
The UK will probably face less trade disruption under Donald Trump than some fear – but will have fewer opportunities to improve ties with the US than some hope.
The gap between the 'Brexit reset' rhetoric and the reality
10 December 2024
Rough-and-ready calculations based on the stated demands of the UK and EU suggest the reset might raise Britain’s GDP by 0.3-0.7 per cent.
Implementing the AI Act: The Commission's first big test for better regulation
06 December 2024
Ursula von der Leyen has said her next Commission will simplify the EU’s complex regulatory environment to boost growth, especially in high-tech sectors.
Articles
Can EU defence bonds strengthen Europe’s defences?
21 January 2025
Encompass
Europeans urgently need to strengthen their militaries. However, funding European defence is a major challenge.
De Duitse economie krimpt, fabrieken sluiten. Het Duitse ‘zelfbeeld’ is niet houdbaar, zegt econoom Tordoir
03 January 2025
NRC Handelsblad
Duitsland blijkt opeens de oude man van Europa. De digitalisering blijft achter, de infrastructuur is verouderd en China ondermijnt de Duitse industriële basis. „Dit is een existentiële bedreiging.”
If the “Brussels effect” fades in tech markets, the EU will only have itself to blame
03 January 2025
Competition Policy International
The EU’s ability to project its regulatory standards across the globe is under pressure. Policy-makers within the EU fret that over-regulation, especially in tech, is contributing to the bloc’s slow economic growth.
Is the UK-EU reset worth pursuing?
19 December 2024
Encompass
Labour has taken a defensive position on Brexit since Keir Starmer first set out his red lines at the Centre for European Reform’s 24th birthday party in 2022.
The Joint Expeditionary Force: Deterrent, defender, or distraction?
06 December 2024
Carnegie Endowment
Since Baltic and Nordic member countries remain invested in the force, they should ensure that it has realistic tasks, is resourced to perform them, and contributes to NATO activities in the region.
"Los políticos, incluso los de derecha, saben que los migrantes ayudan a la economía. Saben que Europa los necesita"
05 December 2024
BBC Mundo
Con una baja tasa de fertilidad y a medida que los baby boomers se jubilan, Europa necesita llenar esos puestos de trabajo para mantener su envidiado sistema de bienestar y salud, de acuerdo con John Springford.
Press
EU plots strategy for dealing with Donald Trump's tariffs blitz
07 February 2025
The Times
Allied economies could include Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia and the UK in a “G6 plus” model, says Sander Tordoir, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform.
What should Britain’s future relationship with the European Union look like?
07 February 2025
Britain's World
Sir Keir says that the UK is not ‘choosing between the United States (US) and the EU’, but the threats by Donald Trump, President of the US, to use tariffs and military might against friendly countries shows the risks of being too dependent on America.
Taking the Pulse: Has political deadlock in member-states become a strategic problem for the EU?
06 February 2025
Carnegie Endowment
Domestic political disagreements do not always lead to foreign policy paralysis: To defeat Nazi Germany, Winston Churchill and Clement Atlee bridged profound ideological differences, remaining in UK’s coalition government from 1940 to 1945.
Foreign strongmen cheer as Musk dismantles US aid agency
05 February 2025
The New York Times
Zselyke Csaky, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, calculated that the United States spends about $2 billion a year on direct democracy promotion programs, including both direct State Department funds and US AID grants. Europe, she said, spends about $4 billion, and would need to spend about 50 percent more to make up the difference.
Transatlantic turbulence: How Trump’s second term reshapes US-Europe diplomacy
05 February 2025
The Geopolitics
The former Chancellor Merkel thought Trump held a special resentment toward Germany while Ian Bond from the Centre for European Reform predicted Germany would stay on Trump’s “top of hit list” permanently.
Ryzyko wielkiej wojny handlowej nie zniknęło, ale nieco się oddaliło
05 February 2025
Rzeczpospolita
To nie byłby wiatr przeciwny dla niemieckich producentów samochodów. To byłaby burza o pełnej skali. Niemcy, jako centrum przemysłowe, są teraz wciśnięte pomiędzy USA a Chiny i jest im bardzo ciężko – ocenia Sander Tordoir, główny ekonomista think tanku Centre for European Reform.
Trump’s tariffs threaten to crush Germany’s struggling car industry
03 February 2025
The Telegraph
“This isn’t a headwind for German carmaking, it’s a full-on storm,” says Sander Tordoir, the chief economist at the Centre for European Reform think-tank. ...“Germany, as a manufacturing hub, is being squeezed between China and the US,” Tordoir says. “It’s very tough for them.”
Europe races to confront America’s trade war
03 February 2025
The Economist
“We have seen that Mr Trump is keen on making deals, and less bothered by them not working,” says Sander Tordoir of the Centre for European Reform, another think-tank.
Europe’s perfect storm
02 February 2025
Financial Times
Production in Germany has been in decline for five years, as noted in a new report by Sander Tordoir, the chief economist of the Centre for European Reform, and American economist Brad Setser. ...It might, as Setzer and Tordoir advise, back IMF scrutiny of countries with persistent and overly large trade surpluses.
Angst voor Poetin voedt het defensiedebat: komt er een Europees miljardenfonds voor de wapenwedloop met Rusland?
02 February 2025
NRC Handelsblad
„Zelfs als je de financiële kant van het probleem oplost, houd je nog altijd een enorme discussie over”, zegt Luigi Scazzieri, defensie-expert bij de denktank Centre for European Reform. „Namelijk: waar geven we het geld aan uit en hoe zorgen we dat iedereen mee profiteert?”
Podcasts
CER Podcast: Unpacking Europe: How can Europe survive Trump's tariffs and a second China shock?
05 February 2025
Sander Tordoir and Zselyke Csaky discuss Trump's tariffs and the second China shock.
CER Podcast: Unpacking Europe: Trump's inauguration: What's next?
24 January 2025
Luigi Scazzieri, Ian Bond and Constanze Stelzenmueller discuss Donald Trump's inauguration.
CER Podcast: Unpacking Europe: The EU in 2024
18 December 2024
Six of our researchers reflect on the past year and look ahead to 2025.
CER Podcast: Unpacking Europe: Labour's plan for the EU
28 November 2024
Charles Grant and Stella Creasy discuss Labour's plan for forging closer ties with the EU.
CER Podcast: Unpacking Europe: What does Trump mean for European security?
12 November 2024
Luigi Scazzieri, Ian Bond and Sophia Besch discuss the impact of Trump on European security.
Events
Hybrid discussion on 'What future for Ukraine?' with Iuliia Osmolovska and Richard Shirreff
19 February 2025
London
Please email events@cer.eu for further information including how to register.
CER/HSF hybrid discussion on 'Implications of the German election for the UK' with Markus Ferber, Christine Heuer, Marion Messmer and Christoph Meyer
24 February 2025
Hybrid London/Zoom
Please email events@cer.eu for further information including how to register.
Dinner on 'Preserving competition at the digital frontier'
05 February 2025
Brussels
With Benoît Cœuré, President, Autorité de la Concurrence
CER/HSF hybrid discussion on 'Von der Leyen's second term: What future for the European Commission?'
09 December 2024
Hybrid London/Zoom
With Marco Buti and Catherine Day. Watch the video of the event here.
CER/Kreab breakfast on 'UK-EU reset: Progress and ambitions'
27 November 2024
Brussels
With Lindsay Croisdale-Appleby, UK Ambassador to the EU