Centre for European Reform

There’s bipartisan consensus in Washington on reducing trade with China, and the EU is largely on board - but Europe’s more trade-intensive economy means it also risks becoming “collateral damage” in the US-China economic rivalry, two experts argued for the Centre for European Reform. Many European firms have made significant investments in China, and cheap Chinese goods have contributed to lower prices amid continent-wide concerns about purchasing power, meaning the EU needs to be more “selective” in its approach to Beijing to avoid an all-out trade war, they wrote. 

But many followers of European politics assume – and seemingly not without reason – that the return of a far right US president would be good for the populist right in Europe. Two-term Trump would “embolden” these politicians, says Luigi Scazzieri of the Centre for European Reform. “They will be less restrained in pushing forward ideas and policies that are socially conservative, anti-climate, anti-immigration, as these would again be normalised in the White House.”

Die EU müsse gegenuber China „konfrontativer werden“, erklärt Sander Tordoir – speziell in Sektoren mit hohem Exportmarktanteil wie bei Windturbinen. Dazu zählten Strafzölle, nationale Kaufanreize für klimafreundliche Produkte sowie mehr Schulden. 

"Whoever the winner of the US election is, it is unclear whether Europe can continue to benefit from US growth without reducing trade with China itself," said Zach Meyers of the Centre for European Reform (CER) think-tank."Both US candidates have the same direction of travel - Trump less predictable and perhaps willing to be more confrontational with the European Union."