Centre for European Reform

Putting a historic industry at the center of policymaking while under pressure from an erratic US President Donald Trump, an expansionist Russian President Vladimir Putin and an ambitious Chinese President Xi Jinping, makes sense coming from Brussels, according to Sander Tordoir, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform.“I’d consider the EUCO a success, all things considered,” he said. “And the leaders are simply working well together at the moment. But there’s a lot still to be done.” 

John Springford, associate fellow at the Centre for European Reform, said the economic dangers cannot be overestimated. “If Trump imposes a 25% tariff on cars and car parts on the UK, it will reduce exports to the US – but only £7bn of exports would be affected, out of total exports of £800bn. The far bigger costs would arise from an escalating global trade war, even if the UK does not retaliate.

Sander Tordoir, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform, said that the most likely outcome is a “mix” of car price increases in the US and a reduction in EU car manufacturers’ profit margins.He also said that the fact that German manufacturers have plants in the US offers them potential “workarounds” to “dampen the blow” of the tariffs.“They can subtract some of the cars they export from their American plants to the rest of the world,” Tordoir said.

 “Things are moving in the right direction,” says Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform (CER).Nonetheless, Labour is so paralysed by Brexit that despite its hunt for growth, it has said nothing about the monumental sums that leaving the EU have cost the economy. Estimates vary, but the CER sets our losses at 5% of GDP.