Research
Donald Trump's return to office: Ten consequences
28 March 2025
Donald Trump’s second presidency is shaking up the geopolitical landscape. Most of the consequences are harmful, but some are beneficial.
One step forward for Europe's defence
26 March 2025
In an effort to adjust to the new strategic reality, the EU is trying to make it easier for member-states to strengthen Europe’s defences. Success or failure depends on them.
The EU budget in a larger Union: Key issues and open questions
25 March 2025
EU enlargement does not need to bust the EU’s budget. But the distributional effects of enlargement need to be addressed to ensure it has broad-based political support.
UK-EU relations: Time to raise the level of ambition
21 March 2025
Geopolitical turbulence has put UK-EU differences in perspective. Britain and the EU need much closer ties.
The new EU-Swiss deal: What it means and the lessons it holds for the UK-EU 'reset'
17 March 2025
The recent political agreement between the European Commission and the Swiss government promises to stabilise their long-troubled economic relationship. The British government should pay close attention.
How the UK and the EU can deepen defence co-operation
07 March 2025
The UK and the EU face daunting common security challenges. Linking Britain more closely to EU defence tools would strengthen Europe's security.
Freezing EU funds: An effective tool to enforce the rule of law?
27 February 2025
The EU cannot operate unless member-states respect the rule of law. Withholding EU funds is a powerful tool to enforce compliance, but it has yet to show its teeth.
Trump's tariffs – how should the EU react?
26 February 2025
The ‘Fair and Reciprocal Tariff Plan’ proposed by Donald Trump sounds innocuous but is a roadmap towards an all-out global trade war. To avert one, Europe must act firmly and speedily.
How to build and fund a better EU green industrial policy
19 February 2025
The EU should revamp its industrial policy for clean technologies not to cede leadership in clean tech manufacturing to China as Trump's America backtracks from decarbonisation goals.
Can Keir Starmer reset relations with the EU?: Annual report 2024
17 February 2025
The CER's annual report starts with an essay on whether Keir Starmer can reset relations with the EU.
Articles
Experts: What do Trump’s tariffs mean for global climate action?
27 March 2025
Carbon Brief
The Trump administration is walking back on US climate commitments, both domestically by threatening to cut back Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) support for clean-tech industries and internationally, [by] withdrawing from the Paris Agreement.
How should Britain step up to enhance European security?
21 March 2025
Britain's World
Seen from Rome, the UK is an essential partner and pillar of European security. The UK’s contribution to a stronger European security posture can be both political and practical.
Een Duitse begrotingsimpuls biedt de EU hoop
12 March 2025
NRC Handelsblad
Duitsland kan door het loslaten van de rem op staatsschulden investeren in defensie. De EU versterkt zo zijn strategische positie, stelt Sander Tordoir.
Filling the USAID gap: How Europe can step up to support democracy
11 March 2025
European Democracy Hub
The suspension and slashing of US democracy grants have left a yawning shortfall of approximately $2 billion per year, impacting thousands of civil society organisations and independent media outlets and placing many at risk of closure.
Heavy industry is Europe’s Trump card
07 March 2025
Foreign Policy
Whether or not the United States now qualifies as Europe’s adversary, it’s clear that its postwar role as guarantor of Europe’s security is over.
What is the perception of defence industrial partnerships with the EDTIB by non-EU countries? The case of the United Kingdom
25 February 2025
ARES Group
The UK’s approach to defence capability development emphasises international partnerships. Britain has close relationships with many EU countries.
Press
Trump has blown up the world order - and left Europe's leaders scrabbling
26 March 2025
BBC News
"Where we are at the moment is that the East Europeans by and large, don't need to get the memo," says Ian Bond, deputy director, Centre for European Reform. "The further west you go, the more problematic it becomes until you get to Spain and Italy."
‘Disastrous’: Trump’s car tariffs slammed by EU governments and industry groups
27 March 2025
EurActiv
Sander Tordoir, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform, said that the most likely outcome is a “mix” of car price increases in the US and a reduction in EU car manufacturers’ profit margins.He also said that the fact that German manufacturers have plants in the US offers them potential “workarounds” to “dampen the blow” of the tariffs.“They can subtract some of the cars they export from their American plants to the rest of the world,” Tordoir said.
Trump's Black Sea truce plan is a 'gift to Russia' that risks undermining sanctions, analysts warn
26 March 2025
NBC News
“It is essential that Europeans don’t fall for this US/Russian stitch-up, which will strengthen Russia, weaken Ukraine, and undermine the security of the rest of Europe,” wrote Ian Bond, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform think-tank.
Rachel Reeves is all about growth. So why won’t she admit that Brexit is its worst enemy?
25 March 2025
The Guardian
“Things are moving in the right direction,” says Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform (CER).Nonetheless, Labour is so paralysed by Brexit that despite its hunt for growth, it has said nothing about the monumental sums that leaving the EU have cost the economy. Estimates vary, but the CER sets our losses at 5% of GDP.
EU trade chief travels to US, China in last-ditch effort to avert trade war
25 March 2025
EurActiv
Sander Tordoir, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform, said Europe's stated concerns about the impact of China's export-led industrial model were almost certainly genuine.“[We] share some of the US’s legitimate concerns about Chinese overcapacities,” he said. “Neither Mexico nor Canada run export-driven growth models that undercut European manufacturing.”
Could Germany’s fiscal reform change the Eurozone neutral rate?
24 March 2025
Financial Times
The near-term implications of higher German fiscal spending could even be dovish at the margin, according to Sander Tordoir, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform.“The upward shift in Bund yields since the announcement may not have prompted spreads to widen, but it does raise borrowing costs for fiscally constrained member-states,” he says.
‘I’m Proud’: Liz Cheney reacts to Elon Musk's criticism
23 March 2025
Newsbreak
Centre for European Reform research fellow Zselyke Csaky said, “This is happening right now, and I know many organizations that will need to shut down,” adding, “By the time European countries respond, there may not be much of the ecosystem to save.”
Europe is gripped by a defence crisis. And Brussels wants to talk about fish
21 March 2025
The Telegraph
Even in the short term, exclusion from the funds is not necessarily a calamity for Britain either, argues Sander Tordoir, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform (CER).“The €150bn fund is not a big deal,” he says. “It’s merely back-to-back loans where the commission passes slightly lower borrowing rates on to member-states.
Russia's next move? The countries trying to Putin-proof themselves
20 March 2025
BBC News
Ian Bond, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform, thinks that if a long-term ceasefire is eventually agreed in Ukraine, Putin would be unlikely to stop there."Nobody in their right mind wants to think that a European war is around the corner again. But the reality is an increasing number of European intelligence officials have been telling us that…
Réarmement : vers un grand emprunt commun des Vingt-Sept pour financer la défense européenne ?
20 March 2025
Le Parisien
« Je ne suis pas si convaincu : il a déjà été difficile pour les chrétiens-démocrates allemands d’accepter que l’Allemagne effectue une augmentation des dépenses si massives ; ajouter un emprunt européen à cela me semble politiquement délicat. Je pense que cela pourrait advenir si la situation sécuritaire de l’Europe se détériorait encore plus dramatiquement : par exemple, si les États-Unis retiraient leurs troupes d’Europe ou si le front ukrainien s’effondrait, analyse Sander Tordoir du groupe de réflexion Centre for European Reform.
Podcasts
CER Podcast: Unpacking Europe: Can Europe still rely on the United States?
11 March 2025
Charles Grant and Kori Schake discuss what America’s hostility to the rules-based international order means for transatlantic relations.
CER Podcast: Unpacking Europe: A snapshot of the war in Ukraine
21 February 2025
Ian Bond and Iuliia Osmolovska discuss the war in Ukraine.
CER Podcast: Unpacking Europe: How can Europe survive Trump's tariffs and a second China shock?
05 February 2025
Sander Tordoir and Zselyke Csaky discuss Trump's tariffs and the second China shock.
CER Podcast: Unpacking Europe: Trump's inauguration: What's next?
24 January 2025
Luigi Scazzieri, Ian Bond and Constanze Stelzenmueller discuss Donald Trump's inauguration.
CER Podcast: Unpacking Europe: The EU in 2024
18 December 2024
Six of our researchers reflect on the past year and look ahead to 2025.
Events
CER/HSF hybrid discussion on 'The Weimar Triangle and Weimar Plus' with Michał Kamiński, Joséphine Staron, Nicolai von Ondarza and Peter Watkins
03 April 2025
Hybrid London/Zoom
Email events@cer.eu for further information, including how to register.
CER/Delegation of the EU to the UK discussion on 'Can Europe become a tech power house?'
17 March 2025
London
with Priit Alamäe, Katherine Bennett, Gaelle Drory-Liaudet and Roberto Viola
27th birthday party, London
26 February 2025
London
With a keynote speech by the Rt Hon David Lidington CBE, former Minister for the Cabinet Office & Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster & Chair, RUSI. Listen to the audio of the speeches here.
Hosted by Inigo Lambertini, Ambassador of Italy to the United Kingdom.
Hosted by Inigo Lambertini, Ambassador of Italy to the United Kingdom.
CER/HSF hybrid discussion on 'Implications of the German election for the UK'
24 February 2025
Hybrid London/Zoom
With Markus Ferber, Christine Heuer, Marion Messmer and Christoph Meyer. Watch the video of the event here.
Hybrid discussion on 'What future for Ukraine?'
19 February 2025
London
With Iuliia Osmolovska and Richard Shirreff. Watch the video of the event here.