Security & defence

Europe is being squeezed from east and west. From the east, Russia’s open war against Ukraine and its covert operations elsewhere in Europe pose the greatest threat. Meanwhile, China’s vast industrial overcapacity threatens the viability of European manufacturers, and creates dependencies on Chinese products (including in the defence sector). Beijing can leverage these dependencies for political ends.

To the West, the US under Donald Trump has become a less reliable ally – but America’s reduced focus on Europe will probably outlast this administration. European countries and the EU are having to work out how best to defend themselves and each other, how to deter future aggression, and how to best engage with the US in NATO. The warfare seen in Ukraine has shown the need for faster innovation and larger scale production than Europe has managed in decades, raising questions about the most efficient and politically saleable ways to scale defence industrial capacity.