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"Pushing for more ambitious climate finance is going to be almost impossible without the US buy-in, which will demotivate developing countries from taking seriously the climate ambitions of the West," said Elisabetta Cornago, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform.

Donald Trump pourrait au contraire pousser pour un éloignement entre le Royaume-Uni et l'Union européenne. Charles Grant, directeur du Centre for European Reform, pense qu'une partie de l'establishment britannique y serait favorable, même si le contexte actuel fait qu'un rapprochement avec l'Europe est plus probable, selon lui.

Does Europe have the capacity to make up any shortfall from a US withdrawal of support for Kyiv?"Yes, but it would take a lot more effort than Europe is making now," according to analyst Ian Bond of the Centre for European Reform. "And I think there will be some, perhaps in Germany, perhaps elsewhere, who will say the Ukrainians are just going to have to put up with losing some of their territory.

Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, a think tank, said that Trump could offer Britain a privileged trading position, possibly with fewer tariffs, if it differentiated itself from the EU.

“Any additional trade barriers between the EU and the US are going to be really problematic for sectors like the car industry and pharmaceuticals, which rely heavily on exports to the US,” Zach Meyers, assistant director at the Centre for European Reform, told The Parliament. 

"Given fiscal constraints, there’s a renewed case for defense bonds that would increase spending, make it more efficient and encourage co-ordination, the Centre for European Reform argues."

Trump, the Republican candidate, plans to impose an additional 10%-20% in cross-border tariffs, making trade expensive and possibly weakening the euro.      “Tariffs will seriously dampen the EU’s economic growth,” Zach Meyers, assistant director of the Centre for European Reform, told Fortune. 

Writing for the Centre for European Reform think-tank, Aslak Berg and Zach Meyers suggest that the EU might find Harris difficult to deal with on economic issues:. . . while Harris would likely be more interested than Trump in transatlantic dialogue, both candidates have economic priorities which will put Europe in an awkward position — including getting tougher on China, and boosting US jobs in sectors sensitive to Europe, such as vehicle production.

Ook econoom Sander Tordoir, verbonden aan denktank Centre for European Reform, erkent de invloed van het toerisme, die weer profiteert van de economische groei van de VS en de sterke dollar: „Onlangs sprak ik met twee economen van een zakenbank. Die hadden twee keer de groei van de Spaanse economie te laag ingeschat, omdat ze de portemonnee van de Amerikaanse toerist hadden onderschat.”