Press

A French court ruled in 2023 that Russians who refuse to fight can claim refugee status, but most are not able to travel abroad to lodge an asylum application, said Ian Bond, a Russia expert and deputy director of the Centre for European Reform.

There’s bipartisan consensus in Washington on reducing trade with China, and the EU is largely on board - but Europe’s more trade-intensive economy means it also risks becoming “collateral damage” in the US-China economic rivalry, two experts argued for the Centre for European Reform. Many European firms have made significant investments in China, and cheap Chinese goods have contributed to lower prices amid continent-wide concerns about purchasing power, meaning the EU needs to be more “selective” in its approach to Beijing to avoid an all-out trade war, they wrote. 

Wat de Britten betreft, gaat dit alleen maar toenemen: „De economie in het Verenigd Koninkrijk lijdt”, volgens Charles Grant, directeur van het Centre for European Reform, een denktank over Europese integratie, gevestigd in Londen.

But many followers of European politics assume – and seemingly not without reason – that the return of a far right US president would be good for the populist right in Europe. Two-term Trump would “embolden” these politicians, says Luigi Scazzieri of the Centre for European Reform. “They will be less restrained in pushing forward ideas and policies that are socially conservative, anti-climate, anti-immigration, as these would again be normalised in the White House.”

"Von der Leyen understands where the political winds are blowing," said political analyst Luigi Scazzieri of the Centre for European Reform think-tank.

"Whoever the winner of the US election is, it is unclear whether Europe can continue to benefit from US growth without reducing trade with China itself," said Zach Meyers of the Centre for European Reform (CER) think-tank."Both US candidates have the same direction of travel - Trump less predictable and perhaps willing to be more confrontational with the European Union."

“My guess is in the long run we will end up with something that actually is more ambitious than you would think at the moment,” says Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, a British think-tank.