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"For the French, sovereignty is absolute, so a state cannot go bankrupt," said Katinka Barysch, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank. "They do, of course. There are plenty of history precedents. But to plan for it may seem harder for the French than for Germany's legalistic minds."

Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, said that if there was a treaty change "there is a danger that other countries will jump on the bandwagon and introduce their pet likes and dislikes. ...Hopefully the French and Germans and the EU institutions will insist on this being a very narrow and specific treaty change on eurozone governance that would allow Cameron to face down the Conservative Eurosceptics," Mr Grant said.

"Germany has had to acknowledge political reality: There was no chance of getting what they wanted past France, Italy or Spain," says Simon Tilford, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform, a non-partisan think-tank in London.

"The eurozone is likely to be the loser in this," said Simon Tilford, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform in London. He says big Asian economies like China and South Korea will race to keep their own currencies stable against the dollar.

Separately, Simon Tilford at the Centre for European Reform published a piece today: "What currency wars mean for the eurozone." He points out that the eurozone's trade with the rest of the world is roughly in balance and that nobody could accuse the European Central Bank of launching policies to weaken the euro. Mr Tilford points out that Germany blocked discussion of imbalances at the recent Group of 20 meeting, arguing that it's for deficit countries to put their own houses in order.

"The Dutch used to be considered an 'old reliable' when it comes to funding the EU – that may now be changing," says Hugo Brady, researcher at the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank.

Analysts like Simon Tilford, of the Centre for European Reform in London, say the reforms are crucial. "What we are seeing is essentially a very powerful group of special interests resisting reforms that would be in everyone's interest and which provide one of the least painful ways of reassuring investors about France's public finances," he said. Tilford believes European governments must take more painful measures than simply increasing retirement age.

"It depends how you define success," deputy director at the Centre for European Reform Katinka Barysch told The Moscow News. "If the government thinks it will create the physical infrastructure for international business then I think that yes, given how much money they have thrown at the project, it will be a success.

"Europe still wants a closer, tighter commercial relationship with China," said Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform in London. "The Chinese think we're obsessed with human rights when in fact we're not. Southern Europe — Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal — are not too concerned about pressing China on human rights." Even in Northern Europe, he said, "human rights is seen as something you mention occasionally but shouldn't let intrude in your commercial relationships."