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Sander Tordoir, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform, told Euractiv that Germany could potentially enjoy “the best of both worlds” by enjoying the protective benefits of tariffs while avoiding the negative effects of any Chinese retaliation.However, he also warned that, regardless of whether China retaliates against German combustion engine vehicles, German automakers are experiencing profound structural problems.

Sander Tordoir, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform, said it would be “profoundly damaging” to the EU’s global credibility if Beijing had succeeded in “peeling off” enough member states to block the tariffs.He also noted that, although the vote will almost certainly not trigger a complete cessation in EU-China trade links, it could represent a significant “milestone” in the history of Brussels and Beijing’s political relationship.

The scale of the problems facing Europe, though, with Germany giving up hope of achieving any growth this year, mean a lot has to go right. If energy costs are a competitive disadvantage for industry, that’s a separate challenge to needing more R&D spending. Trade policy will also have to play a part in leveling the playing field for domestic industries, with an imminent decision due on China EV tariffs. All these will have to work alongside foreign policy in the race to secure raw materials, as the Centre for European Reform notes. 

Hulp bieden aan consumenten om de auto-industrie te helpen kan een oplossing zijn, denkt Sander Tordoir, senior econoom van het Centre for European Reform. 'Mijns inziens zijn maatregelen die de consument versterken wel nodig. Dit jaar zijn ongeveer 2,5 miljoen auto's in Duitsland. Dat is bijna een miljoen minder dan de piek voor de pandemie. Er is een zwakke vraag in Duitsland zelf, daar kan je natuurlijk iets aan doen.'

Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, said vocal pro-European backbenchers probably won’t be as influential as the ERG — despite already having a “rather fraught relationship with the Labour leadership.”

Among the many comments on the Draghi report, the ones by Martin Wolf and the Centre for European Reform are well worth your time.

“The question is not whether the UK should follow EU rules,” noted research fellow Aslak Berg in an insight paper for the Centre for European Reform in July, “but rather the extent to which it should do so and whether it makes sense to formally commit to doing so in return for increased market access”. The European Economic Area (EEA), Ukraine and Switzerland all have different models to show how this can be done, Berg explained.

John Springford, a trade economist at the Centre for European Reform think-tank, said that while Du’s results differed from some other academic studies, the findings were in keeping with overall trade data. “Jun Du and her colleagues’ paper fits with what we know in the aggregate data about UK goods trade: exports and imports to all destinations, in both the EU and the rest of the world, have grown more slowly than peer economies,” he said.