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John Springford, of the Centre for European Reform, suggested a narrow, tech-focused deal could include the UK promising to adopt a similar approach to artificial intelligence regulation, for example – where the US has strongly criticised the EU’s more stringent legislation. “That could be preferable to getting into the weeds of a free trade agreement,” he said.

Simply raising the number of troops might not be enough, Luigi Scazzieri, from the Centre for European Reform tells Euronews."Europeans need to step up their defence whether the Americans leave or not"."To generate credible deterrence, you need to have more capabilities, particularly those on which we rely most on the US: Long-range missiles, aerial defences, aerial supply, air surveillance and transportation, for example", Scazzieri added.

“How many foreign mining concerns are going to want to put money into those sorts of circumstances?” Ian Bond at the Centre for European Reform asks.“We are a long way from the first shovel going into the ground, let alone from minerals in usable quantities coming out of the earth.“There are already significant sources of the rare earths and most of the other minerals that Ukraine has in other friendly countries like Canada, Australia, Chile.

“The British defence industrial sector is still strong,” says Ian Bond, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform. “It makes sense to include Britain in what the European Union is doing to cope with a world in which you basically can’t be certain that the Americans would turn up if you were attacked.”

“I am not sure how quickly the Deal can drive down energy prices,” said Elisabetta Cornago, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform....Cornago notes that the “quick solution” of slashing energy taxes was already done in the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, “but this leaves holes in public budgets so is not sustainable in the long term.”

"This isn't a headwind for German carmaking. It's a full-on storm," said Sander Tordoir, chief economist at the think-tank Centre for European Reform.