Press

Sander Tordoir, at the Centre for European Reform, says Britain should now look to co-operate with key allies such as Germany, France and Italy who are in the same boat. Along with the EU they have pledged to unlock hundreds of billions of euros for domestic defence spending.

Recent analysis by Aslak Berg at the Centre for European Reform, suggested a 20% tariff on all EU exports would lead to a decline in exports to the US of $200bn a year. “Given the weakness of the European economy, this would certainly cause a recession,” he said.

 "Wenn die USA die Allianzen schwächen, wirkt sich das negativ auf den Dollar aus", schrieb Sander Tordoir, Währungsexperte des Londoner Thinktanks Centre for European Reform.

Sander Tordoir, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform, views the need to increase defence spending as a potential boon to a Europe that is otherwise in danger of deindustrialising. “The EU remains a funny animal. From the outside, it looks like a rich bloc with a strong industrial base and lower debt than the US or China – surely capable of rearming quickly and cheaply if it just co-ordinated. Inside, leaders are too busy distrusting each other to act, squabbling while the house burns,” he said.

If that is kept in mind, there is a case for common borrowing (Sander Tordoir usefully sets out how to think about common defence bonds), if this is designed to encourage streamlining specifications and joint procurement across Europe.

Leading European think-tanks, such as the Kiel Institute and the Centre for European Reform, are pretty clear that borrowing is the best way forward, not raising taxes. 

„Wir beobachten so etwas wie eine Verschweizerung der deutschen Wirtschaft“, sagt etwa Sander Tordoir, Chefvolkswirt der Denkfabrik Centre for European Reform.