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"Pushing for more ambitious climate finance is going to be almost impossible without the US buy-in, which will de-motivate developing countries from taking seriously the climate ambitions of the West," said Elisabetta Cornago, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform.

"Unlike the US, the EU has not significantly reduced its trade links with China, particularly for imports," write Aslak Berg and Zach Meyers in a paper for the Centre for European Reform (CER)."This partly reflects an internal conflict in the EU about how to tackle China. Some member-states see China as a strategic and commercial threat and want stronger action.

“In his first term, Trump was obsessed with the US trade deficit with the EU. In his view, this is no different (other than being smaller) to the US concerns about its trade deficit with China,” Zach Meyers, assistant director of the Centre for European Reform, told Fortune.

"Questa volta l'Europa potrebbe non essere in grado di fare affidamento sull'approccio caotico di Trump alla governance, il che ha significato che nel suo primo mandato molti annunci politici non hanno mai portato ad azioni", ha sottolineato l'esperto di politica estera USA Ian Bond, del Centre for European Reform.

Luigi Scazzieri, del Centre for European Reform (CER), también destaca que un segundo mandato de Trump generará un "nuevo periodo de turbulencias transatlánticas, alta tensión comercial y en el seno de la OTAN y con respecto a Ucrania, China y Oriente Próximo".

Luigi Scazzieri, transatlantic relations expert at the Centre for European Reform said: "Trump has also made no secret of his dislike for NATO and belief that Europeans are freeriding on the US for security" and a Trump victory would divide the EU and put it under pressure.On the other hand, a Kamala Harris victory would likely mean continuity with current Biden administration policies, according to Scazzieri.

“There's no doubt that Trump will do something to Germany because he's been very clear that he's targeting Germany's surplus. So that definitely will be a rough ride,” Sander Tordoir, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform (CER), told Euractiv.However, Tordoir noted that Trump’s re-election could also incentivise Beijing to attempt to seek closer ties with Brussels.

A French court ruled in 2023 that Russians who refuse to fight can claim refugee status, but most are not able to travel abroad to lodge an asylum application, said Ian Bond, a Russia expert and deputy director of the Centre for European Reform.

There’s bipartisan consensus in Washington on reducing trade with China, and the EU is largely on board - but Europe’s more trade-intensive economy means it also risks becoming “collateral damage” in the US-China economic rivalry, two experts argued for the Centre for European Reform. Many European firms have made significant investments in China, and cheap Chinese goods have contributed to lower prices amid continent-wide concerns about purchasing power, meaning the EU needs to be more “selective” in its approach to Beijing to avoid an all-out trade war, they wrote.