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John Springford, associate fellow at the Centre for European Reform think-tank, said that if the full 22.5 per cent boost to exports was realised, it would translate to an increase of about £2bn in UK agrifood exports to the EU, based on 2023 food exports of £8.6bn to the bloc.
“That’s not nothing, and would be helpful to British food producers, but it is a small boost when compared to total export volumes to the EU, which amounted to £150bn in 2023,” he added.

“Trends in UK trade have been a long-run shift from goods exports to services exports, as competition from both the EU and other manufacturing centres has pushed UK comparative advantage towards services,” said John Springford, of the Centre for European Reform think-tank. “Brexit has accelerated that shift.”

Fair Play asked Sander Tordoir, a senior economist at the Centre for European Reform, how the EU can find its own recipe for economic success.“The European model may very well be a model in which you pursue certain industrial policy goals and responses to trade tensions in a way that’s more subtle and that you use environmental goals to achieve that aim,” he said. One example: the French payments to help consumers buy electric vehicles made in an “environmentally sustainable” way. “In essence, this is a European clause,” but it is “more subtle” than US green subsidies, he said.

"It depends on your definition of World War Three. A possible conflict between Iran and Israel has the potential to expand into a major military conflagration in the Middle East, with global implications.

“If you think of a world in which geopolitical tensions are going up and in which you have to rearm, being the slow grower is not good news. You are drifting down the economic league table,” Sander Tordoir, a senior economist at the Centre for European Reform (CER) think-tank, told Euractiv. 

Sander Tordoir schrieb in einem Papier 2023, dass das EU-Budget mit denneuen Schuldenregeln hätte verbunden werden müssen. Dies würdedie Investitionsbudgets schützen, während es einen Anreiz liefere, dienationalen Budgets in Ordnung zu bringen.