Press
Russia, Ukraine and the West: Déjà vu all over again
21 April 2021
Encompass
Whatever Russia’s President Vladimir Putin does, he seems to take the West by surprise, and by the time the EU and NATO have decided what to do, Putin has got away with it again.
The man who wants to replace Merkel and run Europe's biggest economy has one very big problem
21 April 2021
The Telegraph
Christian Odendahl, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform, says: “He's a middle of the road German conservative, but he does have corporatist instincts.” With Laschet the leader of the heavily industrial state of North Rhine-Westphalia, having “German business interests at heart” is his “instinct”, Odendahl says.
Czech Republic urges EU, NATO allies to retaliate against Russia over 2014 explosion
20 April 2021
Voice of America
"They seem to be extremely active in a number of parts of Europe, and of course apart from them, we have seen the assassination of the Chechen-Georgian exile (Zelimkhan) Khangoshvili in Berlin, for which a Russian is on trial in Germany, and we've still got the MH17 trial going ahead in The Hague, and we've had other Russian citizens assassinated elsewhere in the EU," Ian Bond of the Centre for European Reform told VOA.
Substantial trade cracks with Europe remain in the post-Brexit world
19 April 2021
The Telegraph
Sam Lowe, a trade expert at the Centre of European Reform, says businesses have found themselves caught between tough regulations and unmanageable costs. “Lots of these companies are still struggling because they can’t get advice. They can’t get customs agents to do it for them. They’re struggling to provide the necessary information, or they just can’t take on the additional cost when it comes to trading with Europe.”
Branding him a killer won’t bother Putin. He thinks Biden is bluffing
18 April 2021
The Sunday Times
Another British error was allowing “Londongrad” to be corrupted by its embrace of new wealth from Russia, heedless of the criminal and KGB forces behind it, according to Ian Bond, director of foreign policy at the Centre for European Reform.“We have allowed a kleptocratic system to be run through our real estate, our overseas territories, it’s hugely damaging,” Bond said.
Post-Merkel Germany may be shaded green
17 April 2021
The New York Times
“They want a world without nuclear weapons, but acknowledge that it will take time to get there — they’ll first have to find other ways to reassure eastern and central European partners,” said Sophia Besch, an analyst with the Centre for European Reform in Berlin.
Annalena Baerbock: The woman who could become Germany’s first Green chancellor
16 April 2021
The New Statesman
Against a backdrop of pandemic, climate crisis and favourable shifts in the party-political landscape, the circumstances have never been as ripe for it: “This could be the chance for the Greens to take the chancellery,” asserts Christian Odendahl of the Centre for European Reform.
Brexit has already cost £11.5billion in trade, Centre for European Reform think tank estimates
13 April 2021
Evening Standard
The Centre for European Reform estimated that quitting the single market and customs union at the end of December 2020 had cut trade in goods by £3.5 billion, or five per cent, by February.It stressed that this was on top of an £8 billion, or ten per cent, hit to trade between the June 2016 Brexit referendum and leaving the single market at the end of 2020, a period which saw a sharp fall in the value of the Pound.
US signals support for Ukraine and will add troops in Germany
13 April 2021
The New York Times
Ian Bond, a former British diplomat who is head of foreign policy for the Centre for European Reform, said that a war was unlikely now but could come this summer. He wrote in a briefing paper that Russian analysts were suggesting that the ground in eastern Ukraine would be too wet for armor for another month, and that the helicopters and aircraft needed for an airborne assault were still absent from Crimea — signs that no attack is imminent.
Bloomberg TV: Merkel's succession in disarray as party splits over nominee
13 April 2021
Christian Odendahl, chief economist at th CER talked to Bloomberg TV about the Merkel succession, and how German politics might change in the coming years.
Times Radio: Russian pressure in eastern Ukraine
13 April 2021
Ian Bond, director of foreign policy at the Centre for European Reform spoke with Carole Walker and outlined three possible motives behind the increased Russian pressure in eastern Ukraine (from 1:50).
El traspié en Ankara pone contra las cuerdas a Michel
11 April 2021
El Pais
Camino Mortera-Martínez, investigadora del Centre for European Reform, opina que el incidente es “el síntoma de una enfermedad más grave”, que es el “tipo de liderazgo que tenemos en la UE”. “Una presidencia será tan importante como la persona que esté al frente decida. Puede ser muy buena, irrelevante o mala”, sostiene la analista, que añade: “Dudo de que vaya a dimitir, pero también de que vayan a renovarlo el próximo año”.
CER podcast: Europe needs a new approach to the Sahel
09 April 2021
Ian Bond discussed the situation in the Sahel region of Africa with Abdoul Salam Bello and Katherine Pye.
Labour attacks ‘arrogant’ Tory government over EU trade deal effects
07 April 2021
Financial Times
John Springford of the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank, said that non-tariff barriers caused by the TCA that made trade with Europe relatively harder, would affect both goods and services. “For example, the UK shellfish industry finds it much harder to export to the EU, as we’ve seen. Its costs go up, its market shrinks and some of its workers and capital shift over time out of fishing and into less productive, lower-paid economic activity,” he explained.
Por qué Europa debe gastar a lo grande, como está haciendo Biden
05 April 2021
ESglobal
La magnitud del plan de gasto del presidente Joe Biden significa que la economía estadounidense va a recuperarse mucho más rápido que la europea. Sin embargo, en muchos aspectos, es la economía de Europa la que necesita más estímulos.
What if Europe's fiscal largesse were as generous as America's?
03 April 2021
The Economist
While in America gross fixed capital formation grew by just under 1% a year in 2016-20, in Europe it shrank, according to an analysis by Christian Odendahl and John Springford of the Centre for European Reform.
El Brexit agrava la crisis desatada por la pandemia en el Reino Unido
02 April 2021
El Pais
La Comisión Europea estimó que el coste previo a la salida para el Reino Unido fue de entre el 1,7% y el 2,9% del PIB y, según un informe del gabinete de estrategia Centre for European Reform (CER), las exportaciones se redujeron un 10% en el agitado periodo comprendido entre el referéndum de 2016 y el final del periodo de transición, en diciembre de 2020.
TRT World: Russia-NATO tensions heat up
02 April 2021
Last week, NATO foreign ministers gathered in Brussels for the first time in over a year. The in-person summit featured Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg saying Moscow's 'pattern of repressive behaviour at home and aggressive behaviour abroad' required immediate, collective action. From Crimea to cyberattacks, diplomatic pressure seems to have achieved...
Brexit in numbers
01 April 2021
Financial Times
John Springford at the Centre for European Reform has done some fascinating modelling showing that UK trade was £16bn in January lower than a “synthetic” UK that remained in the single market and customs union. (This after Brexit had already led to a 10 per cent reduction in total UK goods trade since the referendum in 2016 to the end of last year).
Conference on Future of Europe must restore sense of purpose to EU post-Brexit, says former UK MEP
30 March 2021
The Parliament Magazine
Christian Odendahl, chief economist and John Springford, deputy director at the Centre for European Reform, say the scale of US President Joe Biden’s spending plans means the US economy will recover much faster than Europe’s.They said, “There are two reasons why the economic recovery in Europe will be slower. First, the rollout of vaccines in Europe is roughly six weeks behind the US. As of late March, the EU had administered 13 doses per 100 people, according to the ‘Our World In Data’ website. The US passed that mark on February 10.”