Press

Obie strony tych negocjacji muszą wyjść ze swojej strefy komfortu. Unii opłaca się, żeby May pozostała na swoim stanowisku – uważa Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska, ekspertka Centre for European Reform (CER) w Londynie. Bruksela od początku wyznaczyła korzystną dla siebie sekwencję negocjacji: najpierw warunki rozwodu, potem rozmawiamy o przyszłych relacjach. To jednak jest bardzo trudne do przyjęcia dla Londynu, który stanie przed ogromnym problemem poinformowania swoich obywateli, że wyjście z UE będzie ich kosztowało dziesiątki miliardów euro.

Charles Grant, who has close ties to officials in both the British Government and the EU Commission, warned that the current deadlocked Brexit talks are "ten times easier" than what will come next year. The director of the Centre for European Reform warned that getting to the second phase of Brexit talks is only the beginning of the real battle in leaving the EU. He revealed that EU officials will be "much tougher" than the British Government realises on the future relationship. Mr Grant added that officials in Brussels believe the UK is in "cloud-cuckoo land" over their naivety regarding trade talks. 

If that sounds relatively smooth, think again. The current phase will be “a picnic in the park compared to the bloody battlefield of what’s ahead”, says Charles Grant, of the Centre for European Reform. Not least because May and her cabinet have never agreed on what the future UK-EU relationship should look like. The premature triggering of article 50 meant Britain entered negotiations not knowing what it wanted: never a smart move.

Luigi Scazzieri, at the Centre for European Reform, thinks it's time for some creative thinking on a new EU-Turkey relationship: "The EU should keep the accession process alive to avoid accelerating the negative spiral in bilateral relations. At the same time it should attempt to formulate a new framework for a partnership with Turkey. If, as is possible, the EU moves towards a membership made up of several tiers, there would be space for countries to be associated with certain elements of the Union but not others – in other words some form of associate membership. Turkey could aspire to join an outer ring, perhaps with deep access to the single market but no freedom of movement."

Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, sounded a note of caution on the presumption that by leaving the EU Customs Union and regaining control of its trade policy, the UK would derive major economic benefits. Grant went on to note that, whilst this was a likely scenario, it was not inevitable and the Treasury had serious concerns that any new trade deals would not be able to outweigh the effect of a less close economic relationship with the EU.

The immediate imposition, for example, of EU tariffs on British exports, ranging from 4% to 40%, would be massively disruptive. Among the hardest hit would be the car industry, the UK’s fastest-growing exporter of manufactured goods, according to a study by the Centre for European Reform.