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Yet little substantive change to her deal will be possible, says Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank. The withdrawal agreement, a legally binding treaty that includes the Irish backstop, will not be rewritten. Any suggestion that Parliament should have a veto over entering the backstop will surely be rejected.

The commission launches its plan to internationalise the euro on Wedenesday. Adam Tooze and Christian Odendahl of the Centre for European Reform look at what is really needed to make that happen (hint: one of the main obstacles is Germany’s reluctance to reform economic policy).

Jednak, zdaniem ekspertów, zadanie może być bardzo trudne, bo dzisiejsza rola dolara jako waluty światowej to efekt historii, polityki, struktury amerykańskiej gospodarki i sposobu działania amerykańskiej Rezerwy Federalnej. Londyński think tank Centre for European Reform opublikował analizę, której autorami są Adam Tooze z Uniwersytetu Columbia i Christian Odendahl z CER. Zwracają oni uwagę na trzy cechy waluty globalnej. Po pierwsze, musi być ona używana w międzynarodowych transakcjach. O ile dolar jest walutą w kontraktach, o tyle dla 80 proc., których USA nie jest stroną, to już euro, choć też często używane, występuje praktycznie tylko w transakcjach, których przynajmniej jedną stroną jest państwo strefy euro.

In an analysis on this issue, Sam Lowe of the Centre for European Reform in London, said that membership of a customs union with the EU would not stop the UK pursuing an independent trade policy, particularly in areas like services vital to its economy. However the UK could not strike all-compassing trade deals involving tariff cuts on goods entering its market, as these would be aligned with the EU.

Sam Lowe, senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, says that current members are likely not to want a transient UK joining their club, destabilising it and leaving in a few years. Instead of joining as a full member, the UK could ask to be an associate and, as the voting structure in the group provides each state with a veto, the UK could opt out of this to ensure this balance is not disrupted. 

Yet although predictions of job losses after the vote were off the mark, John Springford of the Centre for European Reform, another think-tank, says those for the economy were not. GDP per person is some 2% below where it would have been without the Brexit vote.

Non fa nomi, il Commissario Ue. Ma non è difficile immaginare a chi siano indirizzate le dichiarazioni contenute nel suo discorso al Centre for European Reform. E dopo aver immaginato dei tanti "piccoli Mussolini" che si aggirano per il Vecchio Continente, ora arriva addiruttira a parlare del rischio di un nuovo conflitto intra-europeo.

Third, can a majority be found in parliament to back it? Perhaps, says John Springford of the Centre for European Reform. But he says the problem for many Conservatives is that it means Britain will in effect become a rule-taker while the plan doesn’t end freedom of movement to the degree proposed by Mrs May.“Remainers might say OK to this,” says Mr Springford. “But ultimately, the question for Conservative MPs is whether they would be willing to accept this degree of vassalage after all the criticism they have made about May’s plan.”

“The government is counting on some Labour MPs to save its bacon. There are half a dozen Eurosceptic ones who may well vote in favour of May’s plan. There is also another small group of Labour MPs who are less Eurosceptic but worry about annoying their anti-EU constituents by being seen to try to thwart Brexit. The government hopes that other, pro-EU Labour MPs will be ‘responsible’ and vote to avoid the potential chaos of no deal. But the government seems unlikely to win the backing of more than 10-15 Labour MPs. Even if a number of others abstained, May appears to be heading for defeat on the meaningful vote.” (Charles Grant, Centre for European Reform)