Press
How the hard-right AfD party has become a potent voice heading into Germany's election
20 September 2017
The Globe and Mail
Christian Odendahl, chief economist of the Centre for European Reform, thinks the party will be mostly ignored and could vanish, as Germany's little social liberal Pirate Party did. "The CDU and SPD are embedded in the centre and will not tolerate a party to their right," he says. "They will work to neutralize the AfD."
CNBC: What could the next German government look like?
20 September 2017
Christian Odendahl, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform, discusses the formation of the next German coalition with CNBC live from Berlin.
Brexit bulletin: Living on Boris time
20 September 2017
Bloomberg
John Springford of the Centre for European Reform said money is the UK’s strongest hand although it’s still a weak one.
Germans' misplaced faith in economic strength
19 September 2017
Politico
“Given how central Germany is to many of the challenges facing Europe, from economics to security, another bland grand coalition would be bad news,” warned Christian Odendahl, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform.
Brexit negotiations three months on: No progress, no resolution, no deal
19 September 2017
Sputnik News
While fighting words indeed, few if any in Brussels were likely intimidated by the ultimatum — as noted by academics and think tanks, such as the Centre for European Reform — no deal would in fact be far worse than a bad deal.
Preparing for a softer Brexit
18 September 2017
CIRSD Horizons
The UK's general election has increased the chances of a softer Brexit. But what would that look like? And could it involve a customs union with the European Union?
Germany's Free Democrats may stall EU reform hopes
18 September 2017
EurActiv
If the FDP joined a CDU government, eurozone reform would be “dead in the water”, economist Christian Odendahl of the Centre for European Reform said, labelling it “the most dangerous coalition for the euro”.
Colour-coding Germany's election
18 September 2017
Reuters
Another option, first proposed by Christian Odendahl, Berlin-based chief economist of the Centre for European Reform, is a Merkel minority government, relying on support from other parties. The advantage of this arrangement is that the SPD could regroup. Time is on the party’s side: Merkel is 63 and unlikely to run for a further, fifth term, which would take her past her 70th birthday. It will be easier to campaign against her relatively inexperienced successor.
Don't call the German election boring - it could be huge leap or setback for the eurozone
18 September 2017
Market Watch
"The FDP sees itself as the economic and regulatory conscience of Germany and would push the CDU/CSU to double down on its calls for fiscal discipline," said Sophia Besch, research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, in a report. "Should the September election lead to a coalition between the CDU/CSU and the FDP, prospects for eurozone reform would be poor.”
No Brexit favours under new Merkel government, Britain warned
18 September 2017
The Telegraph
“On the margins, the FDP as a junior coalition partner could push Merkel in a slightly more pragmatic direction, but really it is only on the margins,” concluded Christian Odendahl, the Berlin-based chief economist of the Centre for European Reform think-tank.
Whitehall must publish its Brexit impact assessments
15 September 2017
Financial Times
Charles Grant, of the Centre for European Reform, first revealed the existence of this paper back in June. It is said to show that the value of new FTAs would be significantly less than the economic cost of leaving the customs union.
LSE public lecture: A changing Germany in a changing Europe? The German elections and implications for Europe
14 September 2017
Christian Odendahl, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform joined the LSE to disuss the forthcoming elections in Germany have important implications for Germany, for Europe and international politics.
What happens if Brexit negotiations don't work?
12 September 2017
The Atlantic
As noted by John Springford and Simon Tilford of the Centre for European Reform, a cliff edge scenario - in which the UK would leave the EU (including its single market and customs union) without a trade deal or transition period - would make the 40 percent of overall UK exports that go to the EU subject to automatic tariffs and customs barriers.
Europas neue Reservearmee
12 September 2017
Der Tagesspiegel
Die unteren 40 Prozent der Lohnbezieher in Deutschland erzielten 2016 nach Abzug der Inflation weniger Einkommen als 20 Jahre zuvor, musste die Bundesregierung im Armuts-/Reichtumsbericht einräumen. Das deutsche Wunder sei „nur ein Mythos“ urteilte darum die „Financial Times“. Zu dem gleichen Schluss kam auch Christian Odendahl, Chef-Ökonom des wirtschaftsnahen Centre for European Reform, der für die englischsprachige Welt eine fundierte Klarstellung verfasste.
Germany after the Hartz reforms
11 September 2017
Foreign Affairs
The odds were always stacked against Martin Schulz, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) challenger to German Chancellor Angela Merkel in the forthcoming election.
Major misunderstanding' Why UK can't rely on Germany's trade fears for good Brexit deal
08 September 2017
The Express
Christian Odendahl dismissed claims Germany will strive for a good Brexit deal for Britain, because Angela Merkel has her sights set on greater unity in Brussels. Although Germany will “not want to punish” Britain, it will not stand for “cherry-picking”, the Berlin representative at the Centre for European Reform warned.
Why Berlin won't come to UK's rescue on Brexit
08 September 2017
Politico
With the German election around the corner, the United Kingdom appears to be holding out hope that a fourth term for Chancellor Angela Merkel and a potentially more pro-business coalition partner could come to its rescue in divorce talks in Brussels.
Intern britisk uenighed kaster mudder i Brexit-forhandlinger
07 September 2017
Kristeligt Dagblad
Udenrigspolitisk direktør Ian Bond fra tænketanken Centre for European Reform hæfter sig tilsvarende ved, at Theresa May ikke som en Margaret Thatcher kan svinge med håndtasken og presse sin vilje igennem i Bruxelles. ”Det påvirker dem betydeligt. En stærkere premierminister kunne sige til resten af Europa, at ’jeg har mandatet til at gøre, hvad jeg vil. Får jeg ikke min vilje, så går jeg’. Hun ville også kunne sige til tilhængerne af en hård Brexit (hvor briterne kapper alle bånd til EU, red.), at det vil være økonomisk katastrofalt, og at briterne derfor vil være nødt til at gå på kompromis med en økonomisk aftale. Men hun har intet,” siger Ian Bond.
What to make of the Home Office leak?
06 September 2017
The Financial Times
John Springford of the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank, disagrees. “This document is a demand for derogation from free movement law,” he says. “It demands that EU citizens register, while UK citizens do not have to do so, violating non-discrimination rules.” He adds: “EU leaders were clear in the negotiating mandate that they gave to the commission that, should a prolongation of the acquis be required, then all rules and institutions and the entirety of single market and EU law would have to apply. The EU has no interest in negotiating a bespoke transition.”
Judy Asks: Is it time for hard power in North Korea?
06 September 2017
Carnegie Europe
If there ever was a chance of a successful military response to North Korea’s nuclear program, it is now gone.