Would UK be better off without Brexit?

John Springford at the Centre for European Reform think tank has nobly attempted to answer this [whether Britain’s economy could have grown by more] by making a “doppelganger” UK, made up of countries that grew at a similar rate to Britain between 2009 and 2016. This model version of Britain — 31 per cent America, plus some Germany, New Zealand, Australia and others — was 5 per cent richer than actual Britain by 2022.

But as Springford admits, the exercise assumes all the differences between Britain and those similar countries are down to Brexit. In reality the US, the largest chunk of the model, has grown unusually fast since 2016, thanks to soaring tech-driven investment, a shale energy boom and a fast rebound in consumer spending after Covid.