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Experten der Berliner Denkfabrik Centre for European Reform können den Plänen deshalb einiges abgewinnen. Ihnen zufolge sendet Europa mit den Plänen "ein wichtiges politisches Signal, dass die EU sich nicht kampflos deindustrialisieren wird und dass die Dekarbonisierung eine Chance für eine grüne Industrialisierung ist."

John Springford, deputy director at the Centre for European Reform, estimates that Brexit had cost the UK economy 5.5% of GDP by June 2022.

John Springford, deputy director for the Centre for European Reform, think-tank estimates that these effects and more had cost the UK economy 5.5 per cent of GDP by the summer of 2022. “Weak investment from 2016 is curtailing today’s output, car manufacturers are running down capital and stocks, immigration from the EU has slowed, and the retained EU law bill could mean divergence from EU rules,” he says.

John Springford for the Centre for European Reform conducts a ‘doppelgänger’ analysis to explore the costs of Brexit. This analysis uses statistical techniques to find the best combination of other countries that match a range of economic variables for the UK before the referendum, and uses this same combination to project what might have happened thereafter.

Charles Grant, director of the think tank the Centre for European Reform, said Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has made Sunak and Macron realize “they need to get on better.”“Britain and France can’t be at loggerheads if that’s going to make the West weaker vis-a-vis Russia, and potentially China as well,” he said.

The UK economy is estimated to be 5.5% smaller than it would have been had it stayed in the EU, according to a study by the Centre for European Reform. And since the Brexit vote, foreign direct investment and business activity in the UK have fallen.

“El deal que se viene negociando desde la activación del artículo 50 [con el que se notifica la intención de un Estado miembro de retirarse de la UE] finalmente, con el acuerdo de Windsor, se puede considerar que está hecho del todo”, afirma Camino Mortera, jefa de la Oficina en Bruselas del think tank Centre for European Reform.

“There’s still a lot of uncertainty about what the ultimate steady-state relationship between the UK and EU is going to be, particularly how much the UK is going to diverge from EU regulations,” said John Springford, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank.That could trigger fresh conflicts in future, but resolution on Northern Ireland increases the likelihood that these will be settled in a way that involves “more compromise and less confrontation,” he said.