Press

A fine summary of the European Parliament’s role in the Brexit process from the Centre for European Reform. Although MEPs officially have no say over the Article 50 terms themselves, they can still block the deal outright, leaving a blunt but still lethal Sword of Damocles hanging over proceedings.

“What winds everybody up is that Germany keeps pretending that these surpluses are pre-ordained. But they are the result of incentives, and governments can change incentives. German policy is set in the perceived interest of exporters at the cost of everybody else,” said Simon Tilford from the Centre for European Reform.

The director of foreign policy at the Centre for European Reform, Ian Bond, suggests that Europe's first order of business is not to overreact - but that it should initiate formal diplomatic contact to find out just what the new policy will mean as the practical effects sink in."It is not unreasonable for the US to want to protect itself," Bond said in an interview with DW, "There is a terrorist threat and some of the countries on this list of seven are pretty much ungoverned spaces" where it would be hard ensure that a government, if it exists, has vetted people before issuing passports.

Simon Tilford of the Centre for European Reform puts it: "The British economy has not weathered the Brexit storm. It is just that the calm before the storm has lasted a bit longer than many had assumed. There is no reason to think Britain will escape serious and permanent damage to its foreign trade and investment and hence living standards."

"Juristisch wäre das Parlament nach der Entscheidung des Obersten Gerichts gar in der Lage, den Brexit zu stoppen", erklärt Sophia Besch vom Londoner Politikberatungsinstitut "Centre for European Reform". "Oder auch ganz stark Einfluss darauf zu nehmen, dass es nicht zu einem harten Brexit kommt, den Theresa May angekündigt hat. Also raus aus dem EU-Binnenmarkt, ohne Wenn und Aber, auch wenn es der Wirtschaft schaden dürfte. Dagegen anzugehen - diesen Mut haben viele Parlamentarier verloren. Weil die Bürger in ihren Wahlkreisen vielen Abgeordneten klar gemacht haben, dass sie den Brexit wollen. Aufhalten, verwässern, verzögern, all das wäre politischer Selbstmord."

The costs are disputed – and ultimately difficult to predict with absolute certainty – but economists like Simon Tilford at the Centre for European Reform believe they will be 'significant'.

"It's politically very beneficial on two fronts," said Rem Korteweg, a trade expert at the London-based Centre for European Reform. "It works for Trump in that it shows he's not anti-trade and not protectionist, and…it's in the British interest right now to show that it has a hedge in Washington, whoever's in the White House."