Press

John Springford, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform, warned Britain may not have a clean break from the EU. He claimed Britain could remain stuck to the customs union after Brexit, despite Downing Street insisting Britain will "categorically" leave the customs union. Speaking on Channel 4 News, Mr Springford said: “I think it is very likely that Britain will remain in the customs union for longer than the two years of transition, which everybody is talking about.”

Samuel Lowe, a trade researcher at the Centre for European Reform, said that Britain would need to ask for the EU’s help to get all trade partners on board for the transitional plan. “The UK is simply not powerful enough to make such demands on its own,” he said. If Brussels was going to assist London in convincing trade partners, this would come at a cost, he said: “This gives the EU some good leverage.”

In a worst-case scenario where the EU deal was not rolled over for the UK during the transition period, South Korea will retain access to UK markets on favourable terms via the EU deal while the UK loses reciprocal access to South Korea, warned Sam Lowe, trade policy expert at the Centre for European Reform. “If Korea does put its foot down and does not grant the same preferences to UK exporters immediately, you could see their incentive for doing so. If they are looking to address their current account deficit, this is an easy way of doing so,” he said.

Rees-Mogg stood by his claim that in drawing up its Brexit plans, the Treasury was trying to influence the argument. He also said that Charles Grant, head of the Centre for European Reform, had been given improper briefings. “He is getting private briefings from the Treasury against government policy,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today. “This is very serious. It is not for officials to invent policy. With the referendum and with the EU, the Treasury has gone back to making forecasts. It was politically advantageous in the past. It is the same for them now. I do think they are fiddling the figures.”Grant said it was perfectly normal for officials to talk to think-tanks. “The Treasury cares about economics so it is naturally pushing for the sorts of Brexit that minimise the economic damage,” he said.

In the Commons on Thursday, Mr Rees-Mogg asked Brexit minister Steve Baker to confirm whether he had heard that officials were deliberately trying to influence policy in favour of staying in the EU customs union.
He attributed the remarks to Charles Grant, the head of the Centre for European Reform.
On Friday, Mr Baker apologised to MPs for saying Mr Rees-Mogg's account of the remarks was "essentially correct".
Mr Grant had denied making them and an audio recording emerged where he did not say what was attributed to him.

“I do think they’re fiddling the figures,” Jacob Rees-Mogg MP told BBC Radio Four’s Today programme, after he was accused of suggesting this in the House of Commons without evidence.

 Host Nick Robinson had put it to Rees Mogg that his accusation was “not the behaviour of a man who wishes to lead this country”, adding the “eccentric backbencher” was now being talked about as a future prime minister.

If the UK does go down the road of staying in a customs union, we can see what kind of deal might be struck. Britain could end up adopting what John Springford and Sam Lowe of the Centre for European Reform call the “Jersey option” (because the Crown Dependencies enjoy a similar relationship with the EU). ...However, as the CER notes, the Jersey option would require Mrs May to soften many of her red lines and her party would be likely to defenestrate her if she did so.