Taking the Pulse: What issue is Europe ignoring at its peril in 2026?

2026 has started in crisis, as the actions of unpredictable leaders shape an increasingly volatile global environment. To shift from crisis response to strategic foresight, what under-the-radar issues should the EU prepare for in the coming year?

As Vladimir Putin attacks it militarily and Donald Trump attacks it politically and it suffers domestic political and economic woes, Europe needs first to concentrate on tackling these problem.

Europe cannot ignore its Southern neighborhood, however. Since the 2014-2015 migration crisis, Europe has tried to treat the symptoms of problems in North Africa, the Sahel, and the Horn of Africa by attempting to stop desperate people reaching Europe. But it has not tackled the causes, which include climate change, conflict, and population growth. From the Atlantic to the Gulf of Aden, the political, economic, security, and humanitarian situation is deteriorating.

Meanwhile, Russia and China are pursuing their interests in the region, to Europe’s detriment. Every Maghreb country suffers or will soon suffer from absolute water scarcity—having less than 500 cubic meters of fresh water available per person per year, against the 1,700 cubic meters required for good health. In the Sahel, jihadists exploit conflicts between herders and farmers that are driven by water shortages. The region’s population growth rates are among the highest in the world—Chad’s population will double in fifteen years. People in intolerable conditions will try to escape, and Europe is an attractive destination. It needs to wake up.

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