Research

Italy after the election: From partner to spoiler?

30 January 2018
Italy's 4th March election is likely to be less consequential than many assume. But it will highlight the urgency of reforming the eurozone and better managing migration.

'Canada', 'Norway' or something in between?

26 January 2018
The EU will reject's Britain's request for a bespoke partnership based on regulatory alignment. The UK will have to put up with a Canada-style deal, unless it shifts its red lines.

Poland’s prime minister: New face, same old tune?

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska
22 January 2018
The new prime minister’s style will be more emollient than his predecessor’s, but he is unlikely to back down on judicial reforms.

Holding out hope for a half-way Brexit house

John Springford, Sam Lowe
22 January 2018
The UK is considering 'managed divergence' from EU rules, which the 27 will reject. A better strategy would be to remain in the customs union and single market for goods.

From 14 points to 280 characters: Trump vs Wilson

22 January 2018
Woodrow Wilson's 14 points of January 1918 were the first sketch of the liberal, rules-based international order. A century later, Donald Trump risks demolishing the edifice.

Of transition and trade deals

Sam Lowe
16 January 2018
The UK will not be able to replicate the EU’s free trade agreements ready for March 30th 2019. The only solution is to ask the EU for help.

Conference report: How to save the EU

Simon Tilford, Christian Odendahl, Sophia Besch
15 January 2018
50 leading economists, political scientists and experts on the EU considered the forces undermining the Union, and how Europe should respond to them.

Nord Stream 2: More hot air than gas?

Noah Gordon
12 January 2018
Some EU member-states see the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline as Russia’s latest anti-European weapon. But even if they are right, the threat can be mitigated.

Trump and the Iran deal: Not yet the nuclear option?

13 December 2017
Trump has placed the international nuclear agreement with Iran in jeopardy. The EU should try to save the deal, but be prepared in case it fails.

The biggest Brexit boon for Germany? Migration

Christian Odendahl, John Springford
11 December 2017
Germany's economy desperately needs qualified immigrants to fill 780,000 jobs. Brexit will help it to do so.

UK + EU = Canada+?

Beth Oppenheim, Charles Grant
01 December 2017
A post-Brexit deal along the lines of the EU-Canada trade agreement would do a lot of damage to the British economy. Can the UK hope for anything better?

Ten predictions for the Brexit talks

29 November 2017
Arguments over the Irish border may block the start of talks on the future EU-UK relationship. When those talks begin, the EU will reject British proposals for a bespoke deal.

PESCO: Paper tiger, paper tanks?

Sophia Besch
29 November 2017
For PESCO to become more than another EU defence paper tiger, it must develop effective assessment mechanisms and deliver on filling European capability gaps.

All is not well in the Visegrad economies

Simon Tilford
29 November 2017
On the face of it the Visegrad – the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia – appear to be doing quite well economically. But there are problems behind the headline growth figures.

A new deal for the eurozone: Remedy or placebo?

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska
24 November 2017
The eurozone is finally witnessing an economic upturn but if it fails to win back the support of disaffected citizens, the bloc could face an existential crisis.

Can EU funds promote the rule of law in Europe?

Jasna Šelih with Ian Bond and Carl Dolan
21 November 2017
The EU is a values-based organisation, yet it does not insist that member-states respect its values in order to receive EU funds. That should change.

Dig for Victory?

Christian Odendahl, Beth Oppenheim, Christopher Haskins
16 November 2017
A UK trade deal with the US will create more problems for British agriculture and food consumers than it would solve.

Trump's trade policy: Separating the normal from the dangerous

Noah Gordon
10 November 2017
Some of Trump's trade actions are traditionally American. Others threaten the future of the World Trade Organisation. Europeans should look past his insults and prepare a response.