Press

Charles Grant, director of the think-tank the Centre for European Reform, said there was a nearly 50 per cent chance that Britain remains in a customs union with the EU indefinitely — in a move that would open up the possibility of a soft Irish border.
“If Labour as a bloc [at Westminster] decides that Britain should stay in a customs union, then there is no parliamentary majority for not being in a customs union,” he said.

"We tend to focus on Hungary and UK but there are other member states - including Germany - who will not want to risk acting against Poland particularly if they can trade Polish support in other policy areas, " says Agata Gostynska-Jakubowska, eastern EU expert at the Centre for European Reform, the London think-tank.

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska, a senior analyst at the Centre for European Reform, said Poland may still be open to infringement proceedings as Mr Duda approved the third bill on Common Courts. 
"The Commission will now be reluctant to go as far as recommending member states triggering Article 7 proceedings, but it will definitely want to send a signal that the case is not closed," she said. 
"It might still want to open an infringement procedure against the law on reforming of the Common Courts, if it feels there are legal grounds."

“I just don’t see the appetite for such measures among the member states,” says Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska, an analyst at Centre for European Reform, a London-based think tank. “And it’s not just Hungary. Germany, too, will be reluctant to isolate Poland. So the Commission might well activate Article 7, but it will likely end at that.”

How to preserve the progress achieved since July 20 1997 is an exceptionally delicate question as the UK prepares to leave the EU. Edward Burke wrote a lucid analysis of the risks for the Centre for European Reform think-tank.

Unlike think-tanks like the Centre for European Reform which knows more about the EU than the whole cabinet put together, the common characteristic of most of the Legatum trade commission seems to be not having worked at any time within the EU or even directly with it.

According to Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform, the Treasury has written an unpublished analysis that shows that the economic benefits of Mr Fox’s future trade agreements with non-EU states would be significantly less than the economic cost of leaving the customs union. Such a document, if leaked or published, could be a blow to Mr Fox’s position.

Estimates of the potential end sum cover a wide spectrum but most are relatively consistent. The Centre for European Reform projects a figure from 25 to 73 billion euros  ($29-84 billion).

The winner this year of the best UK international affairs think-tank category was the Centre for European Reform, which enlightened anyone interested on Britain’s negotiating position, the stance of the “other side” (the EU negotiators), and where the discussions are likely to head in the end.