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Expectations are growing for a tough response from May, said Ian Bond, of the Centre for European Reform. "I think she'll be under a lot of pressure to show that the UK takes this very seriously. And that's partly because when she was home secretary, and indeed before that, the British reaction to the murder of [Russian defector] Alexander Litvinenko in London was seen as rather weak."

A paper by the Centre for European Reform shows both the EU and UK have declined to be specific about the kind of future foreign policy relationship they have in mind. The CER paper suggested a treaty-based alliance similar to that between the EU and Canada to guarantee consultation on sanctions policy, secondment of British officials to the European foreign policy service and regular meetings with UK officials before meetings of the EU foreign affairs council.

Many Eastern European states also question whether the new pipeline will benefit them economically, says Noah Gordon, analyst at the Centre for European Reform, a London-based research group. “There could be bottlenecks through central Europe and Eastern Europe, and those places could see prices rise and they might be more exposed to a Russian political gas cutoff. Ukraine would lose about $2 billion a year in transit fees.”

Ian Bond of the Centre for European Reform thinks this is a powerful argument. He tells me: “The European Commission is very good at targeting its retaliation on trade and looking at ways it can exercise the maximum leverage. Britain doesn’t yet have any of the technical capability to draw up such a retaliatory list.”

Observers of the negotiations said the EU had maintained a unified position with some flexibility for London to build on in the talks. “European Council guidelines on FTA coherent and generally sensible, given UK red lines,” wrote Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform.