Press

John Springford, director of research, at the Centre for European Reform, argued that it seemed likely that May would consider a preferential system for Europeans because if not they would face getting no more than a “basic free trade deal” from the EU-27. He also argued that restrictions on skilled workers were also likely if the prime minister wanted to achieve her goal to heavily reduce net migration to the tens of thousands.

“We will see how skilled Putin is at playing the Europeans and undermining the EU,” Charles Grant, the head of the Centre for European Reform said in an interview. “If Putin is clever, he will strengthen divisions among Europeans by being reasonable and avoid anything like an invasion to make it harder for them to take a tough line and maintain sanctions.”

Improve the digital skills of Britons, more than “10m [of whom]s cannot send an email or shop online … universal digital literacy will be as important in this century as traditional literacy was 150 years ago”. (This echoes — or should echo for those who listen — Simon Tilford’s recent point that the UK lags behind badly behind even on traditional literacy.)

"Trump is no economic liberal and does not appear to understand how global institutions and norms crafted by the US serve its interests," Simon Tilford, deputy director of the London-based Centre for European Reform wrote. "He may only last one term in office, but the UK cannot afford to assume that Trump’s presidency is just a temporary hiatus before normal service resumes."

Luigi Scazzieri, a fellow at CER, said that “Italy’s seems to be lined up as the next domino to fall to populism” in the referendum next week. In an opinion piece in Prospect magazine, he wrote: “The impact of a “No” vote on Italy’s political stability is likely to be contained. “Renzi’s resignation would not automatically trigger new elections. The Italian president Sergio Mattarella would first explore options for a new government.”

Charles Grant, head of the Centre for European Reform, said: “Most of the key people in the Brussels institutions have low expectations of what can be achieved in the Brexit negotiations. Indeed, some foresee a serious risk of the Article 50 talks breaking down and of Britain therefore pursuing a very hard, WTO-rules-only, exit.” 

Charles Grant, of the Centre for European Reform think-tank, said in a report that the EU was showing “surprising” unity on its red lines for Britain’s departure and was preparing for a hard Brexit that would leave the UK outside the single market. Grant said government pronouncements since October had contributed to “an erosion of the goodwill that EU leaders feel towards the UK. They reckon that UK politics is being driven by emotion rather than reason and that there is not much they can do to prevent a hard Brexit”.