Press

Member-states are taking back control of the Brussels machinery from the European Commission, argues Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska at the Centre for European Reform: "The outcome of the leaders’ discussions chimes with the original British vision for the EU, whereby the member-states have a strong voice in EU decision-making, and keep the European Parliament and the Commission at arm’s length. But the irony of Brexit is that the EU is becoming more British just as the UK is leaving the EU."

Though David Davis, Britain’s Brexit secretary, trumpeted on Monday the fact that Britain would be able to negotiate and sign non-European trade deals during the transition, if not to implement them, experts were unimpressed. Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, a research institute, describes that as a “token,” since prospects of such talks being completed during the transition period were remote. “I don’t think that’s a real concession,” he said.

As Sam Lowe at the Centre for European Reform puts it, since Mrs May is determined to leave the customs union and single market, businesses that deal with the EU are “far from sanguine”. Supply chains will still need to be reconfigured in short order; new business processes put in place and the inevitable coming frictions at the EU border will require adjustments. “While the cliff edge has been pushed back,” he says. “It is still very much on the horizon.”

Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, said it was likely the UK would get an accord on the terms of the transition at this week’s EU summit. “Only one thing could prevent a deal: if the British cannot convince Dublin they are making progress towards achieving a barrier-free Irish border, the Irish could veto a transition,” he said. “But that seems unlikely.”

“Rules of origin are going to be one post-Brexit additional cost to business that no amount of innovative thinking or new and unusual technology can stave off,” Sam Lowe, a trade expert at the Centre for European Reform told me. The CBI agrees. “For the 135,000 businesses who currently only export to the EU,” it writes in a new report, rules of origin will “be a huge and unprecedented administrative challenge.”

“Davis, with his breezy self-confidence, sometimes finds it hard to connect with Barnier, who sticks firmly to the rigorous principles of the EU’s legal order,” says Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform.

For Russians, part of Britain’s draw was its offer of legal shelter; it refuses extradition requests from Russia. British institutions, meanwhile, have been lenient with wealthy foreign buyers, skimming through due diligence procedures intended to determine the source of a buyer’s funds, said Ian Bond, director of foreign policy at the Centre for European Reform. “This has been a very weak part of our money-laundering system,” Mr. Bond said. “Not enough questions are being asked about overseas shell properties. Estate agents are not asking the right questions — or any questions — about the beneficial owners.”