Press

Writing for the Observer, Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, who is in close touch with senior figures in Brussels, says: “The EU will reject Theresa May’s proposals. It views her complex customs proposals as unworkable and believes that the four freedoms of the single market are indivisible – movement of goods must go with labour, services and capital. If the UK could ‘cherrypick’ the single market, others might seek a similar status, thereby undermining the EU’s strength and cohesion.”

“The EU will not go along with this, but I’m interested to see if they string it out so as to get the withdrawal agreement over the line,” Sam Lowe of the Centre for European Reform, said.

John Springford of the Centre for European Reform estimates the UK economy is 2.1 per cent smaller today than it would have been without the adverse shock caused by the Brexit referendum.

But Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform think-tank, argues that Cabinet resignations might actually strengthen May’s hand in Brussels.“It’s hard to exaggerate the degree to which the antics of several ministers, including Boris Johnson, have drained away goodwill towards the UK,” he said. “If May was to lose some of her ministers … she would be perceived as someone who was finally cutting to the chase, finally taking tough decisions.”

The UK’s concern is understandable: evidence is mounting of the likely damage a departure from the single market and customs union will do to the UK economy. According to new research from the Centre for European Reform, the UK economy is already 2.1% smaller than it would have been had voters chosen to remain. The hit to public finances totals £440 million ($579 million) per week.