Press

“A lot of British companies selling into Europe or across Europe are going to be breaking the law without realizing it,” said Samuel Lowe, a researcher at the Centre for European Reform.

But Sam Lowe, a trade policy expert with the Centre for European Reform, said that the risk posed to the EU by such a scheme, when applied to Northern Ireland, would be “much smaller” when applied to Northern Ireland than UK-wide.“In practice, with a few exceptions, the day-to-day life for people living under a dual-tariff regime would for most just look and feel as if Northern Ireland were in a customs union with the EU,” he added.

The party also wants to continue with its judicial overhaul, which sparked concern with Agata Gostynska-Jakubowska from the Centre for European Reform. She said that this could lead to further clashes between Warsaw and Brussels. But she added she did not expect a big clash before Poland holds presidential elections next spring.She said: “I think there could be clashes here and there . . . but I don’t think that Law and Justice will want to have a fundamental row with the EU, at least in the first year in power, as immediately after the parliamentary elections, they will start gearing up for presidential elections, where they will want to appeal to moderate voters.”

“The EU want a deal,” said Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, a research institute based in London. “They have a lot on their plate: a new commission; the possible resurfacing of a eurozone crisis; the migration crisis, which threatens to rear its ugly head again; the trade wars with Trump’s America.”

Camino Mortera-Martinez, a researcher at the London-based Centre for European Reform, said, “The Parliament never misses an opportunity to flex its muscle, but it was a misstep by Macron to put forward a candidate that he didn’t think was OK to be in his own government.”

Sam Lowe, a trade expert at the Centre for European Reform, described the no-deal tariff plans as a “quite an extensive unilateral liberalisation” in order to keep prices low. It would make post-Brexit Britain one of the most open countries in the world.

To Charles Grant, the director of the Centre for European Reform, a research institute, it is all about constructing a narrative of “the people versus the elite.”“They understand theater in Downing Street,” Mr Grant said, “and the theater of ‘the people’s Boris’ being pushed around by out-of-touch judges and other European Council leaders, suits his narrative.”