Don't expect Merkel to save Britain's Brexit bacon

Nikolaus Blome, deputy editor-in-chief of Bild Zeitung in Berlin, this week supplied me with a magnificently terse account of how Brexit is seen in the Chancellor’s office:

1. Brexit is pretty high on Merkel’s agenda. All her staff are afraid that a soft and neat Brexit (too favourable to the UK) will ignite new cherry-picking by member states of special privileges for themselves, with Germany footing the bill.

2. The German government will be a tough negotiator. Most probably, there will be no compromise on free movement of people.

3. If the UK is not to compromise on immigration and free movement of people your government will have to negotiate a new trade deal with the EU. “It will be a lot of fun,” Merkel’s  people are joking – given that more than 27 parliaments in the member states will hold a vote on the deal, including Wallonia.

4. Merkel thinks Mrs May is a serious person. But I simply don’t know anybody in our administration who thinks the same of Mr Johnson.

5. The German government sees itself in a position of strength. Once Article 50 is invoked, time is clearly playing against the UK.

6. Merkel is not ready to listen too much to German car manufacturers or other industries with a high rate of exports to the UK. Relations between big business in Germany and the chancellery are pretty dire.

This sombre analysis is shared by Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, in his recent paper Why the 27 are taking a hard line on Brexit.