Better off inside

It’s impossible to say what will happen between the UK and the rest of Europe. But it is possible to say what should happen.

Will Britain still be in the EU in 2020? Honest answer: nobody knows. For a start, there may not be a Britain by then. Scotland is holding a referendum in September this year on whether to become independent. Polls suggest that the Scots will vote to stay in the UK. But Alex Salmond, first minister and leader of the Scottish National Party, is the most effective politician currently operating in the UK, so whether you agree with him or not (I do not), he should never be underestimated.

If UKIP gets more votes than any other party in the European elections – which is possible – some Scots may decide that they are better off leaving the UK and applying to rejoin the EU, because the UK is heading out.

Keeping UKIP at Bay

However, a UKIP success in the European Elections will not give much indication of the next general election, in May 2015. British voters don’t care much about the European parliament, and so use EP elections for protest votes. In 1988 the Green Party got 15% of the vote but it didn’t win a seat in the national parliament until 2010, when it got just one. The British majoritarian electoral system sets a very high hurdle for small parties. UKIP will not form part of the next British government, though its line on Europe will have influenced the three parties – Conservative, Liberal Democrat and Labour – which will in some combination form the next government.

Labour is currently ahead in the opinion polls, by enough to form a majority government. But the lead is not considered by commentators to be very solid. Ed Miliband’s personal ratings are not good (though improving slowly). The British economy is growing, though not by much. So the Conservative-LibDem coalition will trumpet economic success, and cut taxes before the election. This probably won’t be enough to deliver the Conservatives a majority government. So another hung parliament is the most likely outcome. The policy on Europe would then become part of the coalition negotiations between the three parties. These will give the LibDems much power and influence, because the coalition would be between them and either Labour or Conservative. There will not be a coalition between Conservative and Labour.

Again, nobody knows

The Conservatives will promise in their manifesto that a Conservative government would renegotiate the terms of the UK’s membership, and then hold an in/out referendum in 2017. Cameron has said that, if the renegotiation is successful, he will campaign to stay in. But this leaves him plenty of wriggle room, since he has not said what he wants from the renegotiation.

The LibDems are against holding a referendum in the absence of a proposal from the EU to take more powers to Brussels. If there was such a proposal, there would now have to be a UK referendum, under a law passed by the current government (which any future government will keep). Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg has said that this referendum would in effect be an in/out referendum. But a proposal from the EU to take more powers from the UK parliament does not look very likely any time soon.

What will Labour’s 2015 manifesto say about a European referendum? Again, nobody knows. The current party line is that it is not sensible to promise a referendum now in 2017, as this increases uncertainty, which is bad for business investment. This is a plausible line, but doesn’t say whether a referendum is ruled out altogether. The only previous UK referendum on Europe, in 1975, was held by a Labour government.

European policies must be promoted

So it’s impossible to say what will happen between the UK and the rest of Europe. But it is possible to say what should happen. The UK is much better off inside than we would be outside. There are economic benefits: the Confederation of British Industry says that these amount to £3,000 a year per family. This is primarily due to the single market. We could be part of the single market but not an EU member, like Norway. But we’d still have to pay into the EU budget. Norway’s per capita contributions are higher than the UK’s. And Norway gets, in return, no say and no vote in decision making. The Trade Union Congress says that leaving the EU would damage employment and investment.

Beyond the economic benefits, there are social benefits. As the British Trades Union Congress points out, paid holidays and other workplace rights are some of the best arguments for EU membership. Then there are the green advantages. British bathing water is much cleaner than it was 25 years ago. The air is cleaner too – though not yet clean enough. Wildlife is protected. On climate change, the most important issue of all, the UK actually has better policies than most other member states. New coal power stations without carbon capture and storage will not be permitted.

The EU emissions trading system has a floor price in the UK. And the British government supported the European Investment Bank’s move to end loans to coal projects (the German government opposed this). But good UK policies on climate won’t do much to protect the global climate. We’re too small – however grand our self-image. Global policies would be ideal, but won’t be achieved. So European policies must be promoted.

Easier to do that from inside the EU than from outside.