Ukraine without America

Whether or not Europe is able to provide a big load of cash, it needs to be much more robust in its support of Ukraine, says Ian Bond in this trenchantly argued piece for the Centre for European Reform. Bond says European leaders need to face up to the facts: Trump shows deference to Putin and will not pressure him to end the war; Putin is determined to fight on and will never accept an effective security guarantee for Ukraine; and the US is reluctant to help the Europeans provide one.

The real fantasy is to believe that Trump’s erratic peace overtures to Russia can end the war on minimally acceptable terms, or that Putin will stop fighting unless forced to do so.

European governments should deploy their air forces from neighbouring countries to protect the skies over western Ukraine and put boots on the ground even before a ceasefire. This seems highly unlikely to happen any time soon, but it is hard to argue with Bond’s conclusion: European governments must stop hoping that the war will be resolved with minimal effort from them — either because the US will deliver a peace deal, or because Ukraine will make big enough concessions to buy Putin off, or because Putin himself will conclude that the costs of the war are too high.