EU plots course as US awaits election winner

Ian Bond, director of foreign policy at the Centre for European Reform, said the US was still "a long way from a constitutional crisis." But, he told DW, no matter the outcome of the 2020 election, the EU was going to have to start relying less on US leadership on the world stage in the years to come.

"Europe is going to have to work out how to do more things for itself," he said, pointing out that even if Biden does end up winning the presidency he will inherit a host of domestic issues that will demand his attention, among them the "rampaging coronavirus epidemic" and a probable Republican-controlled Senate that will block him at every turn. "The amount of bandwidth that he is going to have to devote to Europe is probably going to be quite limited," he said.

...Bond agreed, saying the EU had to "start thinking in more geopolitical terms" when it came to investing and making policy. "Europe has profound interests at stake in the rise of China, in what happens in Africa, and what happens in the Middle East," he said. 
...Bond said a second Trump administration — especially if the president resorts to the Supreme Court to settle a disputed election by invalidating votes for his opponent — had the potential to further entrench existing divisions within the EU. 
..."It would send the message to autocrats and would-be autocrats in Europe and elsewhere that if you can get the court system in your favor, then you can pretty much do what you like and there will be no consequences," he said. And, although Trump has never enjoyed much popularity in the European Union he has found admirers among populist leaders, including in Poland and Hungary.

Four more years of Trump would also further erode the NATO defense alliance, Bond said. "NATO's deterrent value will diminish because America's president is clearly unwilling to defend all treaty allies," he pointed out in an analysis ahead of the election.

"At best, Trump would defend countries like Poland that he perceives as sharing his world view. Many European states will have no choice but to curry favour with him, as long as the EU itself remains an ineffective defence player," he wrote. To counter this threat, Bond called on Berlin to take on a greater role in world affairs. "Germany has to be willing to take on more responsibility for Europe in the world," he told DW. "It's no longer possible just to be the economic powerhouse of Europe and to leave the defense of the world to the Americans, because they may not be able or willing to take that on."