EU membership "boosts Britain's goods trade by 30 per cent"

The London-based Centre for European Reform (CER) predicted Britain would struggle to maintain trade with other EU member states - now 54 per cent of goods trade - if it left the bloc. ...The CER used "a widely-used economic model" to test whether the EU boosted Britain's trade and whether, as suggested by some EU critics, it constrained its ability to tap markets outside Europe.It said it had concluded Britain's trade in goods with other EU member-states was 55 per cent higher than would be expected given their output, proximity and other traits, and that this means membership boosts total goods trade by around 30 per cent.

John Springford, one of the report's authors, said: "Any decision about leaving the EU must be based on an appraisal of what Britain would be leaving: the EU has successfully reduced trade barriers with the many rich economies on Britain's doorstep. An exit would imperil those gains."

The report said it had looked at trade agreements non-EU member states Norway and Switzerland had with the bloc to get an idea of what Britain might be able to negotiate if it left. Both scenarios meant Britain would be worse off, it said.

"Outside the EU, the UK would face a difficult dilemma: it would have to negotiate access to the EU's single market in exchange for continued adherence to its rules," said Simon Tilford, a report co-author. "British eurosceptics would like to leave the EU in order to re-establish regulatory sovereignty: but they must accept that Britain would have less access to the European markets as a result."