Erdoğan battles to retain power in Turkey

It is difficult to imagine any circumstances in which Erdoğan’s re-election would result in political liberalisation at home. A tightening of the screws would add to the frictions between Turkey and its western allies that have steadily grown, the longer he has been in power.

In this policy brief for the Centre for European Reform think-tank, Luigi Scazzieri outlines the possible consequences of an Erdoğan victory:

1. Louder calls in Europe to formally end Turkey’s EU accession process, which is in the deep freeze but which both sides have until now had a certain interest in pretending is still going on

2. A rise in tensions between Ankara and Athens and Nicosia, which might lead to pressure for more EU economic sanctions on Turkey, after a package of rather limited measures imposed in 2020

3. Strains with the US and Europe over Turkey’s relations with Russia, particularly in the context of the war in Ukraine

4. Still more difficulties with the west if Erdoğan maintains his veto on Sweden’s Nato entry

Reading a range of commentaries on the Turkish elections, I sense that Scazzieri’s gloomy prognosis represents the consensus view.