Can Ukraine's Zelenskyy rely on Europe's 'Coalition of the Willing?'

In the wake of last August’s Paris summit the Centre for European Reform (CER) released a policy brief entitled: Can Europe Save Ukraine – and itself- from Putin and Trump?

In the document Ian Bond, deputy director of the CER, said that Europeans need to face up to four key facts.

The first is that Trump favours Putin over Zelenskyy and that the US is now doing relatively little to help Ukraine.

The second is that the Russians will not agree to Ukraine having any effective protection against future attacks. The security guarantee for Ukraine allegedly accepted by Putin in his meeting with Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff says Bond is a mirage, and the US is reluctant to provide an insurance policy for European forces in Ukraine.

Thirdly, Putin remains determined to win, not compromise and his peace terms would reduce Ukraine to vassal status.

And finally says Bond in the CER document, Trump has so far not been willing to put pressure on Putin by imposing further sanctions. Instead, he is offering Putin incentives to make any kind of deal that can be portrayed as peace.

Things of course have moved on since Bond’s assessment as last week’s US announcement agreeing to new sanctions against Russia’s oil giants attest.

But from a European perspective when viewed overall, Bond’s appraisal remains fairly accurate and his conclusions are equally stark.

“European governments must stop hoping that the war will be resolved with minimal effort from them - either because the US will deliver a peace deal, or because Ukraine will make big enough concessions to buy Putin off, or because Putin himself will conclude that the costs of the war are too high, says Bond.

“If European leaders want to avoid confronting Russian forces on NATO territory, they will have to confront them in Ukraine and give up the illusion that the capricious Trump will save them from the rapacious Putin,” Bond summed up.