Press

Sander Tordoir, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform, welcomed the return of subsidies for electric and hybrid vehicles, which will include a "local content" requirement, expected to ease pressure on the beleaguered automotive industry. "Starting by stimulating consumption, in a situation where both domestic and external demand are very weak, is not a bad idea, even if it is not as effective in the long run as investing in infrastructure or education," he said.

“Germany has historically lacked a comparative advantage in services and resisted integration for fear of competition from countries stronger in this area,” said Sander Tordoir, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform. “In the long run, Germany too would benefit from deeper capital and services markets, but in the short run, integration means more competition and disruption.”

Ian Bond, director of foreign policy at the Centre for European Reform, said Putin has shown no interest in compromise. Bond predicted that Trump’s envoy will hear in Moscow that the proposal is merely “a good starting point” but that the “root causes” of the conflict need addressing — meaning, in Putin’s view, Ukraine’s sovereignty and right to make independent foreign and security policy choices.

“It shows us that Trump and those around him really think the US is not part of Nato,” said Ian Bond, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform think-tank.

Analysis by John Springford, an associate fellow at the Centre for European Reform in London, is more optimistic, predicting a GDP boost of between 0.3 and 0.7 percent over ten years as a result of the agreement. The biggest uplifts, he claims, would come from a youth mobility deal. 

“As long as Europe depends so heavily on China, it is understandable that the German government wants to avoid escalation,” said Sander Tordoir, the chief economist of the Centre for European Reform. “The question is whether the de-risking that this buy-time strategy aims to deliver is moving fast enough.”

One case in point is the Centre for European Reform’s excellent blueprint for a sensible “buy European” policy package for electric vehicles. 

As a manufacturing giant, Germany for decades dragged its feet on EU liberalisation of services in which it historically lacked a comparative advantage, Sander Tordoir, chief economist of the Centre for European Reform, told me. But it too would benefit from deeper capital and services markets, especially with the US and China becoming less attractive export destinations. 

Sander Tordoir, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform, suggests excluding Chinese electric vehicles from taxpayer-funded purchasing bonuses for car buyers.