Research
Erdoğan's victory and the West
31 May 2023
Erdoğan’s re-election as Turkish president means that Ankara’s relations with its Western allies will remain turbulent. The West should expect a bumpy ride.
CER bulletin: Issue 150 - June/July 2023
30 May 2023
- Why the EU can be tougher on China, Zach Meyers, Sander Tordoir
- The Commission: More power demands more accountability, Camino Mortera-Martinez
- 25 years on ..., Charles Grant
The UK's competition authority is ready to regulate big tech
26 May 2023
The UK competition authority has decided Microsoft cannot acquire games company Activision. This should reassure politicians that the authority wants dynamic and competitive markets.
Are the costs of Brexit big or small?
09 May 2023
Critics say my estimate – that the British economy is around 5 per cent smaller due to Brexit – is implausibly large. This insight tests their scepticism against other ways to estimate the cost of Brexit.
EU fiscal rule reform has become a defensive fight
03 May 2023
EurActiv
The new EU fiscal rules proposed by the Commission will not slam public investment or exacerbate recessions in the immediate future, but they might haunt the eurozone in the long-term,
Can the European Political Community bring the UK and EU closer?
01 May 2022
Encompass
The European Political Community (EPC) is Europe’s newest political forum. The EPC is the brainchild of French President Emmanuel Macron. It was born in October 2022 in Prague, with forty-three European leaders taking part in its inaugural summit.
Can the European Political Community be a bridge between the UK and the EU?
28 April 2023
The European Political Community (EPC) could promote closer EU-UK co-operation. But the EPC's ability to do so will depend on its future evolution, which only partly hinges on UK-EU relations.
Protecting Europe's critical infrastructure from Russian hybrid threats
25 April 2023
European policy-makers are concerned about the threat posed by Russia's hybrid attacks on critical infrastructure.
Note to the West: Help Georgia and Moldova as well as Ukraine
21 April 2023
Russian influence in Georgia and Moldova is a threat to Western interests. While Putin is tied up in Ukraine, the West should weaken his position in the other two states.
The EU's elusive China policy
21 April 2023
El Pais
Much like the European Union, I never thought I was going to have to think so much about China.
Will the EU's reform of retail electricity markets help consumers?
19 April 2023
Retail energy markets in Europe have performed poorly during the recent crisis. The Commission’s proposed reforms are a step forward, but they should do more to empower consumers and protect the vulnerable.
What the 2023 Turkish general election could mean for EU-Turkey relations
18 April 2023
LSE blog
Turkey is one of the EU’s largest and most strategically important neighbours, a NATO member and a candidate for EU membership. Its presidential and parliamentary elections, scheduled for 14 May, will determine whether President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan remains in power and in control of Turkey’s relations with Europe.
Five proposals for enforceable EU fiscal rules
17 April 2023
As the EU reforms its fiscal rules it risks repeating past mistakes. The EU should couple Commission discretion with stronger enforcement mechanisms to get member-states to follow debt reduction plans.
AB'de Türkiye'deki seçimlere ilişkin gergin bekleyiş
15 April 2023
Deutsche Welle
AB’de Türkiye seçimleriyle ilgili gergin bekleyişi, olası senaryolara hazırlıkları DW Türkçe’ye anlatan CER uzmanı Luigi Scazzieri, “Kılıçdaroğlu'nun galibiyeti ilişkilerin güçlenmesinin yolunu açar” dedi.
CER bulletin: Issue 149 - April/May 2023
03 April 2023
- A British strategy for Europe?, Charles Grant
- Where is Britain's growth plan?, John Springford
- The best national security that (no) money can buy?, Ian Bond
Will the Retained EU Law Bill undermine Sunak's Windsor deal?
30 March 2023
In its current form the Retained EU Law Bill is incompatible with the Windsor Framework. Rishi Sunak should make big changes to the REUL bill or scrap it altogether.
Press
UK Politics Brexit has cost every UK household £250 in food bills, experts claim
25 May 2023
The Independent
Brexit has cost the UK £33bn in lost trade and investment, according to a new study by the Centre for European Reform, which found that the economic damage is even worse than previously feared.
Five major banks colluded on UK bonds, antitrust agency says
24 May 2023
Bloomberg
“In theory, fines could be up to 10% of each bank’s annual global turnover,” said Zach Meyers, a senior research fellow in competition policy at the Centre for European Reform. “Since the collusion only relates to a small part of their businesses, the fines are likely to be considerably smaller.”
Electric cars could be crucial for the EU to meet its climate goals
22 May 2023
The Economist
Whether the EU will manage to meet its ambitious climate goals will now depend on member states’ willingness to deliver on the plans and to abstain from watering down any legislation that does not sit well with their voters, says Elisabetta Cornago of the Centre for European Reform in Brussels.
Has Brexit left Britain in a better state?
21 May 2023
The Sunday Times
Others, such as John Springford from the Centre for European Reform — who has analysed the performance of several “doppelganger” countries since the UK voted to leave — think the initial economic hit of leaving was as much as 5 per cent, thanks to more trade friction and less business investment.
As Greece votes, leader says blocking migrants built ‘good will’ with Europe
21 May 2023
The New York Times
Europe is “less on top of Greece for doing pushbacks and all the sort of things,” said Camino Mortera-Martinez, who heads the Brussels office for the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank.The latitude given Greece, she said, was in part recognition that the country had lived through a decade of brutal austerity.
Record UK migration surge set to expose government divisions
20 May 2023
Bloomberg
“Immigration pretty much automatically adds to GDP because there are more people in the country working and consuming,” said John Springford, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform think-tank. “We have some good evidence that immigration actually helps to grease the wheels of the labor market a bit, and allows people to hand off lower-productivity tasks to other workers and concentrate on things which they were most productive at.”
Construction and aerospace join car industry in calls for better Brexit rules
20 May 2023
iNews
The Brexit Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) has has also led to a shortfall of 330,000 in the UK labour force, mostly in the low-skilled sector, according to the joint findings of the thinktanks Centre for European Reform (CER) and UK in a Changing Europe.
Britain clashes with European judges over plan to send boat migrants to Rwanda
19 May 2023
Voice of America
But Europe is not in the mood to meet Britain's demands after its exit from the European Union, says Camino Mortera-Martinez, a Brussels-based analyst with the Center for European Reform."I'm not necessarily sure that they will go the extra mile to go and enter into reform of yet another European institution to please Mr. Sunak and his hardline government, when it comes to migration," she told VOA.
For Biden, crisis at home complicates diplomacy abroad
18 May 2023
The New York Times
“I don’t think many European governments are very concerned, presumably because these crises come round quite often but never end in disaster,” said Charles Grant, the director of the Centre for European Reform in London. “Cutting short the trip is a bad signal, but there is such good will to Biden in most capitals that they are prepared to cut him some slack.”
Brexit: Suella Braverman speech confirms truths
17 May 2023
The Herald
Centre for European Reform deputy director John Springford’s latest report on the impact of leaving the EU on the UK economy, published in December, estimates that Brexit had, by the second quarter of 2022, reduced the country’s GDP by 5.5%.
Podcasts
Ask CER - Episode 9: Turkish elections, industrial policy and Ukraine joining NATO
24 May 2023
You asked, we answered: the ninth episode of our 'Ask CER' podcast series.
CER podcast: What's at stake in Turkey's historic election?
10 May 2023
In this week's episode of the CER podcast Senem Aydin Düzgit and Luigi Scazzieri discuss the potential outcomes of Turkey's elections.
CER podcast: What is the EU's China policy?
26 April 2023
In this week's episode of the CER podcast Ian Bond and Camino Mortera-Martinez discuss the EU's elusive China policy.
CER podcast: Berlin versus Brussels: The politics of EU fiscal rules
12 April 2023
In this week's episode of the CER podcast Sander Tordoir discusses the EU's fiscal rules.
CER podcast: Russian hybrid threats
24 March 2023
In this week's episode of the CER podcast Ian Bond discusses hybrid threats with Helmi Pillai.
Events
Lunch on 'The impact of the war in Ukraine on NATO'
25 May 2023
Brussels
With Julianne Smith, US Permanent Representative to NATO
Breakfast on 'Reflections on the Northern Ireland protocol and the UK's relationship with the EU'
23 May 2023
London
With Chris Heaton-Harris, Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, UK
Dinner on 'EU competition policy, industrial strategy and the global economy'
25 April 2023
London
With Olivier Guersent, Director-General for Competition, European Commission
Hybrid discussion on 'Delivering REPowerEU: What more needs to be done?'
14 March 2023
Hybrid Brussels/Zoom
With Matthew Baldwin, Elisabetta Cornago and John Springford. Watch the video of the event here.
Hybrid discussion on 'How could the EU-UK Trade and Co-operation Agreement be improved?'
09 March 2023
Hybrid London/Zoom
With Catherine Barnard, Stefaan De Rynck, Iain Martin and Ivan Rogers