Critics say my estimate – that the British economy is around 5 per cent smaller due to Brexit – is implausibly large. This insight tests their scepticism against other ways to estimate the cost of Brexit.
In its current form the Retained EU Law Bill is incompatible with the Windsor Framework. Rishi Sunak should make big changes to the REUL bill or scrap it altogether.
The UK competition authority has decided Microsoft cannot acquire games company Activision. This should reassure politicians that the authority wants dynamic and competitive markets.
London wants chip-makers in Britain to support innovation. But using national security laws to engineer that outcome is counterproductive. Instead, the UK needs a more sober post-Brexit tech policy.
As the EU reforms its fiscal rules it risks repeating past mistakes. The EU should couple Commission discretion with stronger enforcement mechanisms to get member-states to follow debt reduction plans.
Promoting an open debate instead of forging consensus behind closed doors could make the European Central Bank’s decision-making culture more effective.
To gauge what the EU's next big political fights will be, look at what Ursula Von der Leyen did not say in her annual speech to the European Parliament.
Retail energy markets in Europe have performed poorly during the recent crisis. The Commission’s proposed reforms are a step forward, but they should do more to empower consumers and protect the vulnerable.
EU governments should curb energy subsidies and raise support for clean energy investment. The EU should expand common borrowing to fund green investment: this would accelerate the energy transition.
Erdoğan’s re-election as Turkish president means that Ankara’s relations with its Western allies will remain turbulent. The West should expect a bumpy ride.
China has mostly offered Russia rhetorical support in its war against Ukraine. Beijing seems uncomfortable with Putin’s nuclear sabre-rattling. But China is unlikely to allow Russia to be decisively defeated.
The longer the war in Ukraine continues, the greater the risk that Western unity will fracture. Meanwhile the choices that China makes will determine the future shape of geopolitics.
