My latest update estimates Brexit reduced Britain's GDP by 5.5 per cent by the second quarter of 2022. My model avoids the cherry-picking of data, and performs better than its critics’ methods.
London wants chip-makers in Britain to support innovation. But using national security laws to engineer that outcome is counterproductive. Instead, the UK needs a more sober post-Brexit tech policy.
With the US aggressively throttling China’s chip capabilities, the EU wants to protect itself by subsidising its own domestic chip manufacturing industry. But Europe has better and more realistic alternatives.
Promoting an open debate instead of forging consensus behind closed doors could make the European Central Bank’s decision-making culture more effective.
Eurozone finance ministers just appointed a new head of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM). They should seize the opportunity to turn the ESM into a more useful institution.
To gauge what the EU's next big political fights will be, look at what Ursula Von der Leyen did not say in her annual speech to the European Parliament.
Reducing energy demand can help Europe cope with high energy prices. Consumers need more than pleas to save energy: governments need to provide a mix of prompts, advice and rewards.
Even though interest rates are rising globally, European governments should still borrow large sums to finance green projects. In some cases, the EU should help.
Germany’s slowness in authorising the supply of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine was bad news for Ukraine, European security and Germany itself. But other Western leaders should not be too smug.
European defence budgets are increasing in the wake of Russia’s war on Ukraine. But if member-states don’t co-ordinate their spending better, fragmentation will persist and Europe’s defence industry could weaken.
China has mostly offered Russia rhetorical support in its war against Ukraine. Beijing seems uncomfortable with Putin’s nuclear sabre-rattling. But China is unlikely to allow Russia to be decisively defeated.
The longer the war in Ukraine continues, the greater the risk that Western unity will fracture. Meanwhile the choices that China makes will determine the future shape of geopolitics.
