Press

"It is clear that the financial crisis and the cutbacks have forced countries to ask themselves some difficult questions," said Clara O'Donnell, a defence specialist with the Centre for European Reform. "Should they specialise themselves? Should they cooperate?" ... "Until recently, the UK was able to maintain armed forces that were prepared for all tasks imaginable," O'Donnell said. "Now the financial problem has become so pressing that people have to face up to the fact some tasks may have to be abandoned altogether.

As Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform has told Left Foot Forward: ‘The European parliament has been one of the clear winners from the Lisbon treaty and is stronger now than it's ever been before. This is particularly true in relation to justice and home affairs issues, international security and environmental action. It is absolutely critical that whoever wins the British election is able to exert influence in the European parliament in Britain's best interests.'

But Europe is not ready for a serious discussion with Washington, said Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, a research group based in London. "You can't build a good transatlantic relationship unless you have a Europe that knows what it wants," he said. On the issues that Washington cares most about, Mr. Grant said, the Europeans are divided or their common position weak. And the euro crisis, he said, "means we're introspective."

The chief economist at the Centre for European Reform in London, Simon Tilford, believes EU leaders will come up with some kind of minimum deal in Brussels. But he thinks it will fail to give Greece the support it needs nor will it offer long term solutions for other struggling European economies. "I think Greece faces a very, very tough time," he said. "They are going to struggle to retain the confidence of the financial markets.

Simon Tilford, chief economist at the London based Centre for European Reform think-tank, says Merkel's brinkmanship is understandable given the political risks of Germany's conceding too soon but that she cannot hold out indefinitely. "It is implausible that Greece could get through the rest of this year unaided," he says. "Ultimately, the Germans will put something on the table. They will always defend the stability of the euro."

"The sums involved are quite large, and no one knows quite how much of that gap the IMF can fill," said Philip Whyte, an economist at the Centre for European Reform in London. "Even 10 or 11 billion euros would be a big help," he said, but it would need to be supplemented by some form of European loan, bilateral or collective, particularly with Greece needing to roll over an additional $44 billion later this year.

"Greece has to roll over a lot of money in April and May. It might manage to do that but the idea that it could get through the rest of this year unaided is pretty implausible," said Simon Tilford of the Centre for European Reform think-tank. "There is pressure now to agree to something at the summit but it has to be something that Germany can accept and also prevents Greece going (directly) to the IMF. It will be hard."

"The creation and enlargement of the EU was one of Europe's biggest achievements, but now its inability to speak as one, and its failure to agree on how to tackle its underlying economic and social challenges, is undermining Europe's standing and potentially leading it into a period of decline," said Simon Tilford, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform, a London-based think-tank.