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USA presidentinvaalin turvavaikutuksiin on CER raportin mukaan varauduttu luvattoman huonosti.Yhdysvaltain presidentiksi uudelleen nousevan Donald Trumpin kielteinen suhtautuminen Natoon on tunnettu tosiasia. Trump ei Centre for European Reform -ajatushautomon (CER) tuoreen raportin mukaan näe Natoa niinkään Yhdysvaltojen asemaa vahvistavana koalitiona, vaan pikemminkin instituutiona, jota liittolaiset käyttävät hyödyntääkseen USA:n suomia turvatakuita ja voidakseen samalla tinkiä omista puolustuspanostuksistaan.

Dr Luigi Scazzieri, a senior researcher at the Centre for European Reform (CER), believes EU leaders are trying to "project unity and avoid a descent into a scramble." But that unity, he cautioned, could fall apart if the common strategy to cope with Trump ends in failure and capitals seek tailor-made deals, undermining Brussels along the way.

Charles Grant, Director of the Centre for European Reform, said: "Trump hates the EU but quite likes the UK. He could offer the Brits a privileged position (fewer tariffs?) in Europe so long as they differentiate themselves from the EU - and don't line up closely with it."

Ian Bond, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform, noted, “In Trump’s first term he had a number of ‘traditional’ Republicans in key positions around him, able to steer his foreign policy at least to some extent. It seems likely that in his second term there will be fewer restraints on him. Given his stated views on NATO and the EU, that poses serious risks for Europe’s security and prosperity”.

"Pushing for more ambitious climate finance is going to be almost impossible without the US buy-in, which will de-motivate developing countries from taking seriously the climate ambitions of the West," said Elisabetta Cornago, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform.

Sander Tordoir (CER) gave a strong summary of the major turnaround of the Chinese economy, the “second China shock” (overcapacity and low household consumption as the real estate bubble also burst), which created conditions for a massive manufacturing surplus (around 10% of China’s overall GDP; Setser 2024) being exported to the rest of the world. 

Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, said Trump’s victory was likely to speed up closer co-operation with both the EU and other member states.