US signals support for Ukraine and will add troops in Germany

Ian Bond, a former British diplomat who is head of foreign policy for the Centre for European Reform, said that a war was unlikely now but could come this summer. He wrote in a briefing paper that Russian analysts were suggesting that the ground in eastern Ukraine would be too wet for armor for another month, and that the helicopters and aircraft needed for an airborne assault were still absent from Crimea — signs that no attack is imminent.

...In any event, Mr. Bond said, the United States and NATO should both reassure Ukraine and “deter Russia by shifting the cost-benefit calculation in favor of de-escalation’’ — in particular by being clear to Moscow about what the consequences of a new military intervention would be.