Brexit is a test of de-globalization in a world of Covid-19

UK firms risk being cut out of EU supply chains, likely squeezing manufacturing output and investment. A fall in services trade, which made up 43% of U.K. exports to the EU in 2019, and the arrival of fewer migrants, will inflict the most damage on the economy, says John Springford, an economist at the Centre for European Reform, a London-based think tank.

The CER sees the value of UK financial services exports to the EU falling almost 60% under a trade deal and transport-service exports dropping 15%.

...While the economic hit from Brexit will likely be far outweighed by the pandemic, Brexit's could be long-term. "Trade barriers are permanent. Hopefully, Covid-19 is a temporary shock," says Mr. Springford.