The end of Schulz? Former EU chief faces German election WIPEOUT

Economist Christian Odendahl and Sophia Besch, a research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, wrote in a joint paper: “Schulz, an outsider to Berlin politics, entered the race as a candidate promising to bring change. But the Social Democrats have failed to deliver: their programme struggles to distinguish itself from Merkel’s platform.

“For those voters who do want change, the SPD is not offering enough. And even in policy areas where the SPD campaigns on a platform that differs from CDU/CSU policy, the Social Democrats have not succeeded in shaping domestic debate.”

The pair argued the current “scary” situation in Europe actually worked to Mrs Merkel’s benefit, as Germany needed a strong leader.

The said: “Finally, Merkel benefits from the status quo. Germany's economy is doing well, despite the low wages of many workers; the federal government’s fiscal situation is excellent, and public debt is falling; the political situation in Europe's neighbourhood and the world is scary enough that Germans want a trusted and experienced leader (Merkel wins that contest against Schulz hands down); and Germany's population is old (with a median age of almost 47, compared to 38 in the US), so prefers stability over reform.”

The piece concluded by arguing the SDP should refuse the opportunity to serve in a government coalition, should it become viable, and instead spend the next parliamentary term doing some “serious soul searching”.

Mr Schulz, they said, had promised to shake up German politics but in reality has had little impact on the status quo. Mrs Merkel’s next challenger, they hoped, would be “a bit more exciting”. 

They said: “If Merkel wins again in September, the SPD should not enter another grand coalition. As Merkel’s junior partner, the Social Democrats would once again get bogged down in compromises, instead of developing convincing alternatives. Instead, Germany’s left should use the next four years to do some serious soul-searching, to ensure that the elections in 2021 are, by German standards, a bit more exciting.”