Ten years after Brexit, British political instability puts brakes on EU-UK “reset”

For John Springford, associate fellow at the Centre for European Reform, the most worrying finding from recent studies is that Brexit's economic impact may not be a one-off shock. 

"The economy has returned to its previous growth path, it's continuing to grow more slowly, and that's very concerning because it means that the loss may continue to grow," he said. The second EU-UK summit offered an opportunity to claw back some of those losses. Yet even if all of Starmer's reset policies are implemented, Springford believes the economic gains would be relatively modest. 

"Overall, we're looking at something which is about a 0.5% rise in GDP in the long run. So, compared to 5%, 6%, it's offsetting about a tenth of the cost of Brexit." 

...Despite growing public support for closer ties with Brussels, UK politics is unlikely to undergo a major shift before the next general election, expected in 2029. 

"I suspect that in the run-up to that election, parties are all going to be competing over who's going to go further on reversing Brexit," Springford said. 

Whether such shifting sentiment will lead to the UK rejoining the EU remains an open (and distant) question for now. But Springford believes the pressures pushing the UK toward closer integration with Europe are only bound to increase as dissatisfaction with the current arrangement deepens.