Discussion on 'Scenarios for the future of Russia's war against Ukraine'

Speakers:
Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies, King's College London
Iuliia Osmolovska, Director, GLOBSEC Kyiv
Oleg Synianskyi, former head of Ukraine's foreign intelligence service
Chair: Ian Bond, Deputy Director, Centre for European Reform

After more than three and a half years of Russia's brutal assault on Ukraine, it remains unclear how the war might end. US President Donald Trump stated confidently in a social media post on September 23rd that Ukraine would be able to take back its territory "and, who knows, maybe even go further than that!", but few inside or outside Ukraine share his optimism. Equally, Vladimir Putin's faith that he can outlast Ukraine and the West and achieve his goal of subjugating the whole country, or even a substantial part of it, seems to have little basis in reality, given Russia's grindingly slow progress on the battlefield. The flurry of diplomatic activity this summer, including Trump's Alaska summit meeting with Putin and Washington meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other European leaders, has died down, with the prospect of an early ceasefire, let alone a durable peace deal, receding. At the same time, tensions between Russia and NATO have escalated, with Russian drones and military aircraft repeatedly entering NATO airspace.

In June 2025, Iuliia Osmolovska and authors from several Ukrainian think-tanks published 'Seven Security Scenarios on Russian War in Ukraine for 2025-2026: Implications and Policy Recommendations to Western Partners', ranging from a hybrid World War III to a ceasefire and peace process that address Ukraine's interests and security. At this meeting, Iuliia will look at what if anything has changed since June, and what the most likely scenarios for the next phase of the conflict are. After Iuliia's introductory remarks, Oleg and Lawrence will provide their analysis of the current situation and the possible evolution of the conflict. This will be followed by a Q&A discussion with the audience, chaired by Ian, and held under the Chatham House Rule.

Please email events@cer.eu for further information, including how to register.