Is the UK doomed?

Like some economic ice bucket challenge, a deluge of reality has brought me back to reality and reminded me what a complete mess Brexit has made of our lives. That ice-filled bucket comes in the form of a report by Anton Spisak for the Centre for European Reform (CER) called rather chillingly “A perfect storm”.  Frankly the “reset” was nice but as Spisak explains in gory, relentless, detail, without much, much more of the same the UK is f****d. 

I am sure the CER wouldn’t quite put it that way, but the facts are obvious for anyone with the ability to read. This report confirms the analysis produced by the Office for Budget Responsibility after the referendum – lower trade equals lower productivity equals lower wealth. 

...As this report makes clear, “the UK is currently experiencing the most severe trade stagnation in a generation – and one that has undermined post-pandemic recovery and continues to weigh heavily on the country’s growth prospects.” 

...The report says: “Compared to the G7 average, UK real GDP is nearly 5 percentage points lower than pre-pandemic, with exports lagging 11 percentage points behind. Against the EU-27 average, the overall GDP gap was narrower – around 2 percentage points………The UK stands out as a real outlier when it comes to post-pandemic trade.”

...As for growth, the report says: “Exports have historically contributed positively to UK real GDP growth. Since 2020, however, exports have become a drag on UK GDP growth, on average subtracting nearly 0.5% per annum”. 

Not all of this down to Brexit, but as Spisak writes: “This challenge… has been uniquely exacerbated by Brexit, which has increased the relative costs of exporting overseas for British manufacturers. The result is a subdued export performance on a scale that is unprecedented in recent history.”