A migration crisis and disagreement with Turkey is the last thing Europe needs right now

"2016 was in some ways a missed opportunity," says Luigi Scazzieri from the Centre for European Reform, based in Brussels. "After the agreement, steps were not taken to make the relationship sustainable over time. There was then not much effort made to stop the cause of these problems - the war in Syria."

"I think there will be appetite to send Turkey money, because the alternative is a resumption of the crisis," says Scazzieri. "It might not be as much as Turkey wants, but this is happening at the same time as the coronavirus outbreak. Some member states might not want to stump up the cash, but they also won't want to fight two crises simultaneously."