Merkel's poll win unlikely to make much difference to Brexit, analysts say

The EU and single market are a “core national interest” for Germany, “essential to its stability, security and prosperity”, said Christian Odendahl of the Centre for European Reform. All major parties and most voters bar the 13% who cast their ballots for the anti-immigrant AfD want more EU cooperation, not less.

The FDP may be more pro-business, but it will be a junior partner in the likely coalition and got badly burned the last time it governed with the CDU. It will use its few bargaining chips “very carefully, and almost certainly not on Brexit”, Odendahl said.

Brexit campaigners are also wrong to argue that the value of its trade with the UK – particularly exports – means German industry will inevitably press politicians into demanding a softer Brexit, Odendahl argued.

The idea that Germany would buy into something “because of the number of cars BMW sells is misleading”, he said. “Of course German industry wants to limit any economic damage – but not at a cost to the single market.”

German businesses have “made the best possible use of the single market, with complex supply chains across the continent. Nothing is more important to them than the single market, its rules and institutions.”