Interview: Military force is not enough to end Libyan conflict

Do you believe that the current Libyan crisis can be resolved by diplomatic efforts, not through the use of force?

It seems that for the near term diplomatic efforts will not be enough by themselves; it clearly must be a combination of efforts; at the same time only presume the military option would, of course, not be effective. For the moment Colonel Gaddafi does not yet want to completely abandon his power, and the rebels do not want to negotiate on those terms. So the balance of power is shifted; it seems, the military force would still be required, particularly if one wants to alleviate some of the humanitarian sufferings, which the conflict creates.

France, which has taken the lead role in Libya, says that NATO should increase military pressure on Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi despite the concerns of the BRICS nations. So does the West have plans over the ground campaign in Libya?

The problem of the challenge, which the European allies, the United States and some of the Arab countries are facing in the military campaign in Libya, is that they don’t have a very specific end goal; so their initial main objective was to stop attacks on civilians in Benghazi. Now the conflict has been evolving, and they are not entirely sure, what now that must be achieved, how do you achieve your next steps in response to how the conflict is evolving; and this makes a very strong lack of consensus on whether ground troops should be used in Libya and whether a lot of reluctance in most countries, including the UK and France, should persuade the option of putting soldiers on the ground.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Tuesday, “The backing of Libyan rebels by the Western powers could lead to the further conflict in the region”. Do you agree with that?

The question is in backing up to what point? For the moment the international consensus seems to prove that military efforts from Europeans, Americans and other countries, which chose to stop civilians being unnecessarily harmed, is a good thing, even if this favours the rebels. The question there is how far do you go; again we see reluctance to have troops on the ground, to be arming rebels, because there are questions within European Union, who exactly we are arming, where would these arms go, and is there a risk leaving the country again, so there are some quite significant question-marks.

Lavrov also rate rated statements by Russia’s NATO envoy Dmitry Rogozin, who said on Monday that the actions of the Western states in Libya were controversial with the young resolution of the North African state. Can you comment on it?

There are also some within the European countries, that are nervous about this idea of Britain sending in military advisors; it still seems to fulfill under the UN resolution, so these worries because it is the first step of the further developments. We would seem for the moment, that the operations, that Europeans and Americans are undertaken, it is still fooling with the UN resolution, but I am not a legal expert, so I would not be able to comment further.

Britain will send a group of military advisors to Libya to co-ordinate the actions of scattered rebel forces. How effective is this initiative?

It is one, that is creating quite a lot of controversy among Britain and European partners, but also it is a response, because there is a growing acknowledgement among NATO allies; that aerial bombing is not going to be enough to end the conflict, there are serious concerns, that this conflict will go on to a very long stalemate. So this measure is an attempt to try and find some other ways to put an end to the conflict. But, of course, there is that question of how effective our simply sending in a few military advisors, it might not make very much a difference, but more importantly, this is the first step of several, so it will give a lot of reluctance, we see in UK and elsewhere, to see this is going any further. Next month international mediators will meet in Rome to discuss the future of Libya amid calls for NATO to increase pressure on Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi. What results do you expect of this meeting? This will very much depend on the military situation on the ground, on the impact that this will have on Gaddafi’s own calculations, I mean, the conflict is only lightly to end or change, when Gaddafi realizes, it is in his own best interest to give up the fight. For the moment he doesn’t seem to want to do it, and, I think, it is only, when he will understand the cost of affair, there will be some changes; then any form of mediation can lead to a peaceful conclusion.

Russian Foreign Minister believes that Al-Qaida and other terrorists may benefit from the current Libyan crisis. Also Muammar Gaddafi last month expressed fears, that Osama bin Laden could take control of Libya and turn it into a second Afghanistan. Gaddafi previously blamed the unrest on Al-Qaida and bin Laden. So can we expect the second Afghanistan?

It is very difficult to drop parallels. Anyway what is clear there could be a parallel to Afghanistan in extend to which we might be now facing a quite worn-out conflict; in the same way, that the conflict in Afghanistan has been going on for many years, and European and American powers have not been able to leave it to a peaceful conclusion. I think in this aspect we can have a similar situation here, where again we do not succeed in getting a country to a peaceful conclusion. Now, of course, there is a risk, that if there is significant civil war in the country and a lot of instability, that certain militant groups can try to take advantages to assume the power, they have more room for manoeuvre, and there are a lot of concerns, certain terrorist groups could take advantages of the crisis in Libya, in the same way that some expresses concerns, they may be taking advantage of the power vacuum in Egypt for the moment, which in Sinai peninsula.

Mustafa Abdul Jalil, head of the Libya’s rebel National Transitional Council, during his talks with Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi on Tuesday pledged to make his country democratic and open. How do you estimate his chances?

For the moment there is a lot of uncertainty, but, of course, the key issue will be if Libya has to become a general democracy, it first needs to solve the current conflict, so a lot will depend on how quickly that will be resolved; then afterwards it clearly seems, that a lot of people in the rebel factions are keen to introduce a democratic system in Libya, they will face a certain challenges. Because as a result to the way Gaddafi has run Libya through the last few decades, Libya does not have key foundations, which can be required for democratic system. So it doesn’t have a very strong civil society, it doesn’t have organized political parties and a political opposition - all these things must be built. It does not mean that it is impossible, but it definitely means that it will be a challenge.