Press

"Denied the protection of NATO's nuclear weapons in Europe, Turkey would have additional reasons to worry about Iran's nuclear programme – and perhaps to develop nuclear weapons of its own. Newer NATO members in central Europe, who see in the nuclear weapons a symbol of US commitment to defend them, would be left feeling vulnerable," George Robertson, a former defence secretary and NATO secretary general, argued in an article he co-authored this month for the Centre for European Reform.

Supporters of the treaty argue that it was never going to deliver instant results. "It is difficult," said Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, "to write off what has not been built," referring the new European diplomatic corps. "Turf wars are a characteristic of bureaucracies since 10,000 years BC," he said. "Bureaucracies fight other bureaucracies. Everyone knew this would happen."

Simon Tilford, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform in London, said that for the eurozone countries the Eurostat proposals constituted "a significant erosion of sovereignty. "But when they signed up to the eurozone, they effectively agreed to cede sovereignty over time", Mr Tilford said. "There was always going to have to be a greater measure of integration." Although the Greek situation was "the most egregious example," he added, "it is not as if there have been no other examples of governments massaging public finances."

Mr Kontopirakis "alone is not guilty, but he should have spotted the discrepancy and spoken up at the time," said Simon Tilford, chief economist at the London-based Centre for European Reform. He continued: "No doubt, there was political interference at the statistics office, but his argument is indefensible. This is the most egregious example of budgetary data that we have ever seen in the EU, and his position is extremely weak."

"Now is the time when Europe needs to speak as one voice," said Simon Tilford, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform in London. "The crisis should lead to political unity, but it could just as easily lead to a divided Europe."

Yet greater coordination of economic policy will necessarily happen, says Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, a London think tank. "There will be for Greece and possibly Spain a loss of fiscal sovereignty - a two-tier Europe with the weaker countries having to accept outside tutelage" from sounder euro members as the price of financial support.

Jacques Delors, a three-term, ex-president of the European Commission (EC), said recently that the European Union (EU) would face a tough "choice" in the next few years, while Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, was more straightforward saying that Europe could possibly "fall apart" ['Is Europe doomed to fail as a power?' by Charles Grant, July 2009]. Their remarks have are in immense contrast compared to the elation brought by the entry into force of the "Lisbon Treaty"...

"At this junction they will have to support Greece," Simon Tilford, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform, said of Europe's politicians. "If you have encouraged the markets to believe that support is forthcoming and then it is not, we will see a backlash" in financial markets. Though Mr Tilford said the markets would ideally like to see some form of guarantee extended to Greek loans, he added that this would probably be too much for the government in Berlin.

Charles Grant, director of the London-based Centre for European Reform, published a paper last month arguing that Europeans need to agree on a single message in their dealings with China so that Beijing can't play a game of divide and conquer. At the same time, he said, the E.U. should "abandon the fiction of a 'strategic partnership,'" which cannot be meaningful with such divergent value systems, and focus on a limited number of issues on which China and the E.U. can find agreement.