Press
Estonian euro may trigger upgrade, Moody’s, Fitch say
13 May 2010
Bloomberg Businessweek
New euro states are likely to be less generous in accepting fiscal indiscretions from the bloc's older members, such as Greece, as they demand that the same stringent budget policies that they pushed through in order to join be enforced across the region, according to Katinka Barysch, chief economist at the London-based Centre for European Reform. "As more of these new member states join the single currency they will be very strict on the old member states," Barysch said in an interview with Bloomberg Television today.
Tories set for clash with EU on banking laws
12 May 2010
EurActiv
"In this whole area of financial services, UK-EU relations could blow up," according to Philip Whyte, a UK-based analyst from the Centre for European reform. … "The Lib Dems will likely try to reign in Euroscepticism coming from their Conservative partners but they will not be shaping the UK's EU policy." Whyte also points out that the Tory electorate is still smarting from the fact that they did not have a referendum on the EU's Lisbon Treaty last year, serving to fuel their hostility to the bloc even more.
EU hopes British Lib Dems will rein in Tory europhobes
12 May 2010
EUbusiness
"It's the best possible result for the EU because Cameron doesn't have his hands tied by the hardline eurosceptics in his own party, it was a great result for the status quo," said Hugo Brady, analyst at the Centre for European Reform.
Sarkozy emerges buoyed from euro rescue effort
12 May 2010
Mercury News
Simon Tilford, chief economist at the European Centre for Reform, noted that the plan for the euro included "some elements of the French model" such as a greater need for intervention and regulation…. The French "were very quick to recognize how serious the situation was and that does contrast with one or two other governments, notably Germany." But he added, "I find the rhetoric coming out of France, with its attack on the markets as the reason behind the downfall of the eurozone, quite problematic.
Europe shows Britain coalitions can work
12 May 2010
Reuters
Hugo Brady, Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for European Reform, said coalitions could be short-lived because they were often formed to get a country through periods of instability but pointed out that was not always the case. "With the right leader they can be very stable creations once they get over an 18-month to two-year period in which all their frailties are exposed," Brady said. "Power becomes addictive, the partners become hooked on it, and they stay on."
Backlash over UK stance on euro bail-out
11 May 2010
Financial Times
But Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, said there was increasing anti-British feeling across the EU, fuelled by the belief that Britain had allowed its currency to depreciate to gain a competitive advantage. "People are fed up with the British; we are deeply unpopular," Mr Grant said, warning that it would not be easy for the UK to find allies to help it on issues such as trying to revise an EU directive on hedge funds. "Nobody will owe us any favours," he said.
Managing in a crisis, EU style
11 May 2010
Reuters
"The problem here is the recurring inability in the European project to say brutal truths honestly and clearly and act on them in a realistic manner," said Hugo Brady, an analyst at the Centre for European Reform, referring to a previous last-minute summit. "Doing just enough to survive the political day is a habit born of EU leaders involved in summitry," he said, adding: "Eventually the EU is going to hit a crisis that it can't get over."
German EU-weariness weighs on Merkel
11 May 2010
Wtop
"The country's political elite is still wedded to the European project even though Germany is no longer willing to pay over the odds to make European compromises possible," said Katinka Barysch, an analyst at the London-based Centre for European Reform think tank, in a research note. "The risk is that the Greek crisis brings a latent sense of frustration and disillusionment with the EU to the boil", she said. "It is hard to see how the EU could make progress on anything ...
EU bailout sparks new challenge: Enforcing fiscal rigor in eurozone
10 May 2010
The Wall Street Journal
But putting changes into effect that would give the European Commission or other governments real control over national budgets is easier said than done, says Simon Tilford of the Centre for European Reform in London. Governments "are going to say all the right things." … "This isn't an issue that's going to be resolved by one or two governments getting tough on public spending," he says.
Debt crisis: £645bn rescue package for euro reassures markets … for now
10 May 2010
The Guardian
"Trichet is a diminished figure," said Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform think tank…. Grant said the decisions did nothing to resolve the economic fundamentals of European weakness and imbalance. "Southern Europe will be stuck in a vicious circle of deflation and recession for many years."
Markets rally runs out of steam
10 May 2010
Financial Times
"It does not address the underlying issue – the terrible economic growth prospects of the southern eurozone countries and Ireland," said Simon Tilford, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform think tank. "Unless these economies can avoid deflation and get their economies growing, they have no future in the eurozone."
Euro strikes back with biggest gamble in its 11 year history
10 May 2010
The Guardian
"It shows that they're serious, despite all the squabbling," said Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform...."All this has highlighted the strains between Berlin and Paris," said Grant. "The big loser is the Franco-German relationship."
Merkel away when crises came calling
10 May 2010
New York Times
Katinka Barysch, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform, an independent research organisation in London, said this partly explained why Mrs Merkel had taken such a very tough stance against bailing out Greece. "Merkel felt that her hands were tied by very real and immediate constraints," Ms Barysch said. "But her cautious and delayed reaction is also in line with a deeper shift in Germany's European policies. In a European Union of 27, Germans no longer automatically assume that their national interest coincides with that of the Union."
After crisis fund, EU faces long-term battles
10 May 2010
Reuters
"There are going to be many years of pain in southern Europe, this is just the beginning," said Charles Grant, the director of the Centre for European Reform in London. "The underlying cause of the crisis, which is the lack of competitiveness in the southern European economies, has not gone away. It's very hard to see how the crisis will lift for up to five years because the competitiveness issue is so serious."
EU learnt from Greek experience
09 May 2010
Financial Times
Sir, Lex on the Portuguese bail-out (May 4) implies that the International Monetary Fund would have imposed more rigorous criteria on the crisis-hit country than the “soft-touch” European Union.
Greek debt crisis raises doubts about the European Union
07 May 2010
New York Times
But the problem is more fundamental, said Simon Tilford, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform in London. "Most of the time, the gap between European rhetoric and reality is just an annoyance," he said. "But that gap is simply lethal when it comes to the euro." Instead of attacking markets and forming a new European agency, "the leaders need to focus on the issue that is driving the markets: the dire growth prospects for the southern rim" of the eurozone, meaning Greece, Portugal, Spain and even Italy.
Elections likely to make UK more eurosceptical
06 May 2010
NRC Handelsblad
"Cameron may be a eurosceptic, he is also a realist," said Simon Tilford of the CER. "He has already indicated he wants to let the European issue lie for the time being... Twenty years ago, a lot of prominent Tories were pro-European," Tilford recalled. "Now, to stand a living chance of being selected as a Conservative MP, you have to be eurosceptic."
Panic as the euro is rushed into intensive care
06 May 2010
Radio Netherlands
"Leaders must find a way of preventing the crisis in Greece spiralling out of control, prevent it from bankrupting Greece and prevent it from spreading to the other eurozone countries. Because if it does, it will quite possibly lead to the unravelling of the eurozone," says Simon Tilford, chief economist at the CER. "That would be terribly damaging for Europe, for the EU and the political fall-out would be enormous."
Europe eyeing Conservative performance in UK election
03 May 2010
Euronews
Charles Grant, with the Centre for European Reform, said: "He has said that he wants to build up credibility by showing that he's a constructive European leader in the early stage of his premiership, if he indeed does become prime minister. That's encouraging but still the worry remains that after a few years he implies that he will come back to this issue of trying to change the treaties and everybody in Europe has spent about 10 years negotiating the treaty change and they're fed up with it."
Deflation could stall efforts to revive Greece
02 May 2010
New York Times
Katinka Barysch, of the CER, said that that realization had hit home in Germany. "It might be unpopular for the Germans and Europeans to bail out Greece, but it will be even more unpopular for them to bail out the banks that owned Greek bonds… If growth stays negative or low in Greece, the fiscal debt will continue to increase, whatever they do," Ms Barysch said, while difficult structural reforms to liberalise the economy will take time. The economists she speaks to "don't really see a solution for Greece in the longer run," she said. …Greece is functionally bankrupt, Ms Barysch said.