Brexit one year on: The impact on the UK economy

John Springford, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform think-tank, estimated the likely UK trade performance based on a model, “doppelgänger UK”, derived from the performance of similar countries.

The model showed that as of October, the latest month for which data is available, UK imports and exports of goods were 15.7 per cent below the level that could have been expected had the UK not left the EU’s customs union and single market in January. The analysis points to a picture that, along with EU nationals leaving, Brexit has “made it harder for the supply side of the British economy to adapt to the reopening of [sectors after lockdown was lifted],” Springford said. He added that uncertainty and sterling’s depreciation following the referendum have left the economy on track to lose around 4 to 5 per cent of national income compared with expectations had the UK voted Remain.